-Caveat Lector-
>From http://www.washtimes.com/world/20020504-14966884.htm
>>>Given the Bushes' ties to the other Maoists, this could be a tough one.<<<
}}}>Begin
The Washington Times
www.washtimes.com
Nepal's leader to seek help from Bush
Chitra Tiwari
SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES Published 5/4/2002
Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is to meet with President Bush at
the White House on Tuesday to discuss possible military assistance to save his
beleaguered government, which is beset by a Maoist insurgency. Mr. Bush last week
asked Congress to release $20 million to help the Himalayan nation fight its battles.
While the movement, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ("Prachanda") and Dr.
Baburam Bhattarai, was quietly capturing the hearts and minds of villagers and urban
intellectuals in Nepal, international political developments, particularly the U.S. war
on terrorism, have turned a manageable and negotiable rebellion into total war.
Nepal's government imposed a state of emergency in November after the Maoists
broke a cease-fire and renewed guerrilla hostilities. Emergency rule, however, has
failed to contain the insurgency and the government is seeking to fight its internal
war
with foreign military assistance, mainly from the United States, Britain and India.
Nepal's wish list includes assault rifles, 12 armored Mi-17 helicopters, two
fixed-
wing short-takeoff-and-landing (STOL) transport planes, communications equipment
and night- vision gear.
The Maoist insurgency grew more rapidly than anyone thought possible after the
June 1, 2001, massacre of King Birendra and his family at their palace � reportedly
by a drunken Crown Prince Dipendra, Birendra's eldest son, who later shot himself.
Maoists immediately interpreted the massacre as a conspiracy by Indian and
American intelligence agencies in collaboration with "domestic reactionaries." They
called on the people not to recognize the new ruler, King Gyanendra, the younger
brother of the slain Birendra.
In July, the government and rebels agreed to talk and announced a mutual cease-
fire. At their first meeting with the government, representatives the Maoists presented
three demands:
�Abolition of the monarchy.
�Formation of an interim government to supervise an election.
�A constitutional assembly to draft and approve a "people's constitution."
At a second meeting, the government unequivocally rejected abolition of the
monarchy, but showed some flexibility about forming an interim government to
"amend" the constitution rather than electing a constitutional assembly to create a
new one.
At the third session, the Maoists agreed to withdraw their demand for abolition of
the monarchy but insisted on convening a constitutional assembly. They apparently
hoped to win a majority in the elections and be able to write a republican
constitution,
but the government refused to allow such an election on the grounds that the present
constitution does not have such a provision.
The government had appeared willing to resolve the insurgency through dialogue
with the Maoists until the change in the international environment following the
September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States. Hard-liners and conservative
elements began to press the government to seek U.S. help in suppressing the
rebellion rather than negotiate, seeking to link the Maoist insurgency with al Qaeda
and the Taliban.
As a result, the Nepalese Maoists' demands were rejected. They, in turn, declared
further talks futile, broke the cease-fire and renewed guerrilla violence by attacking
military bases for the first time in six years.
The government imposed a state of emergency on Nov. 26 and renewed it on
Feb. 22. In doing so, government leaders apparently thought that the Nepalese army
would scare off the Maoist militia within a month or so.
Prime Minister Deuba has now conceded that it may take another five to 10 years
to contain the insurgency. With massive foreign military aid, however, he believes it
might take as little as two years to suppress the "Maoist terrorists."
The insurgency has defied all military operations and turned deadlier by the day.
Its progress gives the impression that the guerrillas have graduated to "the strategic
stalemate" from "the strategic defensive" phase of Mao Tse-tung's classic
description of "people's war" � putting them only one phase away from "the strategic
offensive" that leads to victory.
The guerrilla war has truly exhausted the state.
More than 35 percent of local government buildings all over the country have
been burned, 19 of the 75 districts have lost telephone service, hundreds of post
office buildings have been burned, millions of dollars worth of power plants have
been attacked, leaving hundreds of villages without electricity. In some district
headquarters, drinking water has been cut off and highway bridges are damaged.
Scrutiny of the government-controlled Nepali press suggests there is a
breakdown of civil administration in more than half of the country. The army and
police control cities, district headquarters and highways, while the guerrillas roam
the
countryside with impunity.
The death toll from insurgency-related violence is alarming. A tally of the daily
toll
from accounts in the government-controlled press shows that the conflict has cost
the lives of 4,600 Nepalis � more than 2,600 in the past five months. In addition,
there are tens of thousands of wounded and displaced persons.
The security forces have killed almost 70 percent of the dead, calling them
"Maoist terrorists," while the guerrillas have killed police, soldiers and civilians
reputed to be government informers.
Human-rights organizations, including Amnesty International, have accused the
government of gross human-rights violations. The army is accused of
indiscriminately killing civilians at religious sites and picnic spots during shootings
from helicopters. The government is further accused of extrajudicial killings in
custody, and criticized for not upholding the norms of Nepal's constitution and laws.
The Maoists are criticized for execution-style killings of soldiers after they
surrender.
While the violence has already exhausted the country and shaken the political
system in Nepal, it is also jostling the regional balance of power. Nepal occupies a
strategic position between India and China, two giants that have unresolved border
disputes and fought over them in 1962.
China still occupies a section of the Himalayas claimed by India. Since the demise
of the Soviet Union, China has focused more on reinforcing its southwestern border
by moving troops and constructing military infrastructure.
Both India and China have historically treated Nepal as a buffer state. Although
Nepal is economically dependent on India, it is relatively free of military ties to
either
India or China.
Heretofore, U.S. interest in Nepal has been more symbolic than real. The
Himalayan country of 24 million lost strategic significance for the United States after
Washington established relations with Beijing in 1972. But it has regained
significance since September 11. In the past four months, high-level diplomatic and
military delegations, including Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, have visited Nepal
with offers of military and economic assistance to contain the Maoist insurgency.
Developing U.S.-Nepal military relations have the potential of raising regional
tension to a new level as India and China watch the developments. Neither is likely to
welcome an external power taking over this traditional buffer.
In the past, both India and China competed for influence in Nepal, which tried to
maintain a relationship of equidistance (or "equiproximity") between the two regional
heavyweights. Nepal's relations with India are governed by a treaty signed in 1950
providing New Delhi's security umbrella to Katmandu. India's defense policy regards
Nepal as well within New Delhi's regional security matrix. Any U.S. military
involvement in Nepal without the concurrence of India is likely to complicate the
matter.
What are the choices for India? While instability in Nepal is not in India's
interest,
the intrusive presence of the United States is a threat to New Delhi's regional
ambitions.
India has declared Nepal's Maoists to be terrorists and has offered its help to
contain the insurgency by providing intelligence, arms, helicopters, extradition of
rebels from their hideouts in India, and training police and military personnel in
jungle
warfare.
� Chitra Tiwari is a Washington-based free-lance analyst of international affairs.
He formerly was a lecturer in political science at Nepal's Tribhuvan University. He
can be reached by e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Copyright � 2002 News World Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.
Return to the article
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