-Caveat Lector-

Bush administration warns of effects of climate change

Copyright � 2002 AP Online

By JOHN HEILPRIN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (June 3, 2002 7:11 p.m. EDT) - The Bush administration warns in a
report to the United Nations of significant effects on the environment from
climate change but suggests nothing to deal with heat-trapping "greenhouse"
pollution beyond voluntary action by industry.

For the first time, the administration puts most of the blame for recent
warming on human activity, pointing to the burning of fossil fuel that releases
carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, according to
the report released by the Environmental Protection Agency.

"The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to
human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these
changes is also a reflection of natural variability," the report says.

"Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue
through the 21st century," it says. "Secondary effects ... include increases in
rainfall rates and increased susceptibility of semiarid regions to drought."

The report also says that despite some lingering scientific uncertainties,
"There is general agreement that the observed warming is real and has been
particularly strong within the past 20 years."

In the United States, changes over the next few decades are expected to put
Southeastern coastal communities at greater risk of storm surges, prompt more
uncomfortable heat waves in cities and reduce snowpack and water supplies in
the West

The extents of aspen, eastern birch and sugar maple probably will contract
dramatically in the United States, shift into Canada and cause loss of maple
syrup production in northern New York and New England. Great Lakes water levels
are expected to drop, which would affect navigation, water supplies and aquatic
species. Production of U.S. hardwood and softwood products is projected to
increase, mostly in the South. Fewer cold days and reduced snowpack do not bode
well for the southernmost ski areas, where costs of snowmaking would rise.

Kalee Kreider, global warming campaign director for the National Environmental
Trust, an advocacy group, said environmentalists want from the administration a
climate change plan that joins with other nations in requiring carbon dioxide
emission reductions and increased fuel efficiency requirements for vehicles.

"It's good they've done a 180-degree turn on the science. Given the audience,
they pretty much had to," Kreider said. "But we're still waiting for a plan
that mandates pollution cuts."

The EPA paper, submitted to the United Nations, was posted without notice on
the agency's Web site late Friday and reported Monday by The New York Times.
EPA officials did not immediately return phone calls for comment Monday.

Last year, the White House described climate change as a serious issue after
seeking opinions of the National Academy of Sciences but was undecided about
how much of the problem should be blamed on human activities. President Bush
favors a climate plan with voluntary measures to slow the rate of growth in gas
emissions but allow them to continue to rise.

He opposes regulating as a pollutant carbon dioxide emissions from power
plants, unlike legislation sought by Senate Environment Chairman James
Jeffords, an independent from Vermont, and some Democrats.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the administration remains convinced
that the president's plan is the best path, for two reasons. He pointed to
language in the report acknowledging "considerable uncertainty in current
understanding of how climate varies naturally."

And, he said, Bush's plan will "significantly reduce the growth of greenhouse
gas emissions," while investing in new science and technology to curb them.
Bush has proposed spending $4.5 billion on climate change science and
technology.

European Union countries formally signed the Kyoto Protocol on Friday. It was
negotiated in 1997 to stem pollution and global warming; President Bush has
rejected it. The ratification by the 15 EU countries at the headquarters of the
United Nations represented a major step toward putting the treaty into force.

------------------------
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