-Caveat Lector-

>From http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/page.cfm?objectid=12102997
&method=full&siteid=50143

IT'S A NOVEMBER 6 WAR

Aug 9 2002



By Tom Newton Dunn and Ben Taylor



AMERICA will attack Iraq on November 6, US defence experts believe.

They are so sure of the date that they have posted an Iraq Countdown

clock on the internet to show the minutes ticking away.

Five of the US Navy's aircraft carriers will be close to the Gulf region. Weather and 
political
factors also favour the date picked by international think tank GlobalSecurity.org for 
the
start of the campaign to topple Saddam Hussein.

Respected commentator John Pike, director of the Washington-based organisation, told 
the
Daily Mirror: "Iraq is going to happen a lot sooner than most people think."

The eight key pointers are:

- President Bush must have resolved the Iraq situation when his re- election campaign
begins in under 18 months, and a war and clean-up will take at least a year;

- Delaying an attack will give Saddam more time to prepare his defences;

- A war in the desert would be almost impossible before October because it is too hot 
for
troops to wear protective bio-chemical suits;

- In December and January, temperatures are low enough to freeze diesel oil, cloud 
hinders
air visibility, and desert snow can hamper tanks;

- Elections to the US Congress finish on November 5. President Bush cannot fight a war 
in
the month-long run-up;

- Media speculation and government leaks had all predicted an invasion in February or
March 2003, so early November might have given the US an element of surprise;

- The military will have time to replenish stocks of smart bombs that were depleted by 
the
Afghanistan campaign;

- Five US aircraft carriers will be close by, together with Royal Navy carrier Ark 
Royal,
providing an invasion base under the cover of routine deployment.

Aircraft carriers are expected to play a key role in any assault on Iraq.

Several allies, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, that gave facilities in the 1991 
Gulf War
have ruled out the same support for America's drive to oust the Iraqi dictator.

Each American carrier will have a full complement of F18 Hornet fighter- bombers and a
strike force of up to 1,000 Marines. All five will be battle ready and within five 
days sailing
from the region on manoeuvres by the beginning of November.

Ark Royal's war games mission in the Mediterranean, announced this week, is due to 
finish
on November 5.

Mr Pike said: "The opportunity to attack without having to announce new deployments to
the world beforehand is likely to be far too good for Pentagon war-planners to ignore.

"You can go to war within three weeks of making a decision about it, and within one 
week
of the world finding out.

"The President is under a lot of political pressure for results and his window is 
pretty tight.

"If I was a betting man, November 6 is where all my money would be."






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