-Caveat Lector-

http://www.addistribune.com/Archives/2002/08/16-08-02/Ethnicity.htm

Ethnicity and Globalization

By Messay Kebede

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article debating the difference between
ethnicity and democracy. This article is a follow-up: it tries to situate
the ethnicization of Ethiopian politics in the contemporary context with the
view of emphasizing the convergence between the Ethiopian ethnic slide and
the policy of globalization. When Ethiopian actors uphold ethnicity, they do
so with the firm conviction that they are tackling the major problem of
modern Ethiopia since its inception under the Amhara hegemony following
Menelik's conquests. Most of them do not even suspect that their analyses of
the Ethiopian reality as well as the solution they propose are strongly
influenced by the needs and thinking of external hegemonic forces.

A major outcome of globalization, many theoreticians believe, is the gradual
and inevitable decline of the nation-state. (For additional information on
the decline of the state, see Tseggai Mebrahtu's interesting article, "Some
Reflections on the Dominant Ideology of Globalism and the Current African
Dilemma," posted by Ben's Page.) If so, it is no mere coincidence if the
process of nation-building in Africa experiences severe hardships, not to
say a virtual halt. That Africa is plagued with ethnic conflicts, latent or
explicit, points to the presence of a movement counter to the colonial
process. Everything appears as though this reverse process is undoing the
colonial policy to lump together ethnic groups in enlarged states. The
reason for this is that the emergence of a hegemonic global economy no
longer requires enlarged and competitive units. So long as there existed a
French national bourgeoisie competing against an English or German
bourgeoisie, when therefore capital had a national seat and command,
colonialism and neo-colonial order needed nation-states to demarcate the
respective influence of each national bourgeoisie. In such a context,
African national demarcations indicated the contours of reserved
territories, and any revival of past identities was stigmatized as
tribalism.

With the rise of a transnational capitalist class--heralded by the growing
prominence of international institutions such as the World Trade
Organization, the IMF, and the World Bank--these national demarcations lost
all utility. The promotion of ethnic identities became the perfect
instrument for weakening the idea of nation-state and its corollary, the
national integration of ethnic groups. In the eyes of globalist forces, the
proliferation of national units comes up against the rise of a truly global
economy. Because nation-states target economic self-sufficiency and are
accountable to the people, the state plays a major economic role both as
owner of important sectors of production and protector of the national
interest and labor rights through protectionism, planning, social welfare,
etc.

By contrast, global markets operate under conditions that are not state
centered but market centered. Public policy should be confined to the
provision of legal framework for contracts and defense of law and order and
to the liberation of the economy from social constraints. To the extent that
globalization pushes for the privatization of public enterprise, the
deregulation of economic life, the liberalization of trade and industry, and
the reduction of public expenditures, it sees the traditional protective
functions of the state as obstacles to the development of global economy
and, by extension, to the modernization of Third World countries.

Nothing could please more globalist strategists than to hear local forces
denounce centralization and homogenization in the name of ethnic identities
and stigmatize African nation-building efforts as a remain of colonial
legacy. To undo these newly born states, what else is required but the
revival of tribal mentality? The task is all the easier as the process of
nation-building in Africa, in addition to being recent, is fraught with
difficulties due to mistakes committed by authoritarian rulers and their
resounding economic failures. The conclusion that the idea of nation-state
had not taken root in the thinking of African peoples was thus easily
reached. Scholarly studies began to appear describing ethnicity as a
legitimate democratic aspiration and African states as artificial gatherings
imposed by colonial masters.

Moreover, the proliferation of ethnic identities and states takes away the
idea of self-sufficiency and generates units naturally open to the idea of
trade. What is being used as a lure here is the model of the little tigers
of East Asia through the suggestion that the ethnicization of Africa is
liable to replace the cumbersome African states by smaller units whose
integration makes them dynamic. Indeed, a major argument of globalists is
the successful and rapid economic success of East Asian countries. For them,
if we look at just the post-war period, it is clear that a steady economic
growth is associated with openness to world trade and unrestricted
acceptance of foreign investment. The net result of all this is the loss of
legitimacy of the nation-state inherited from colonialism in favor of the
ethnic state.

But there is more to the matter than this. The promotion of ethnic state or
of ethnonatianalism fulfills another crucial requirement of globalization.
In view of the fact that the larger, the multiethnic states have lost
legitimacy, the only way by which social consensus could be reinstated
between ruling elites and the people is through the generation of a
political system that works under the assumption that elites have organic
solidarity with the working masses. Since the impersonal state has become
dysfunctional, solidarity, the very one suggested by common ethnic
belonging, is a viable substitute.

According to the globalist thinking, modernization by means of authoritarian
rule has not only failed, but has also become obsolete. Under the working of
a global economy, modernization amounts to being attractive to transnational
capital so as to be integrated into the global economy. The basic condition
for attracting capital is an elite rule supported by popular consensus. This
explains the association of globalization with democratization and its
misleading outcome, given that the enthronement of an elite little warrants
the respect of democratic rules and rights. What globalization wants is not
the sovereignty of the people, but the rule of elites regularly sanctioned
by popular votes. In this way, the people themselves give their consent to
globalist interests.

For the task of the local elite is to create, in competition with other
local and national elites, the social and political conditions that maximize
profit for foreign investors through the availability of cheap labor, the
protection of private property, the promotion of open market, the
suppression of protectionism, etc. These conditions require the stifling of
social welfare and the acquiescence to heavy human sufferings related to
mass displacements and to the acceptance of a sudden plunge into extreme
poverty of a large number of people while a small minority enriches itself.

No other power can justify the enrichment of a local elite and the
subsequent expanding gap between rich and poor than the aureole of ethnic
liberators. Unlike the discredited multiethnic state, the banner of
solidarity gives the state and the local elite the legitimacy to demand the
necessary sacrifices. In other words, the promotion of ethnicity squares
well with the political and ideological requirements of globalization: it
enriches a local elite in the name of a solidarity that divides peoples
along ethnic lines and keeps them docile by turning them into consenting
actors through the process fraudulently baptized "democratization." So long
as the rulers are identified as kin allegedly showing solidarity with the
masses, they have all the legitimacy to rule without restrictions, and so
integrate the country into the global economy.

The perfect place where this globalist scenario has been unfolding since the
80s is Ethiopia. One reason for this is that if there is one state in Black
Africa that does not trace its origin back to colonialism is the Ethiopian
state. Besides this symbolic value, the Ethiopian state was fighting against
the Eritrean secessionist trend and other anti-centralist movements. Though
at first look such a state seemed difficult to dismantle, the fact that it
appeared as a besieged state made the task much easier. Moreover, its
international patron, namely, the former Soviet Union, was going through a
similar process of disintegration unleashed by the demise of a contested and
failed ideology. Ethiopia thus appeared as the weakest link of the chain.
The recognition of the secessionist movement sent the clear message that
African national borders can be done and undone while the support for the
TPLF announced the launching of a new political experience of ethnic
federalism which, if successful, could become a model.

Various testimonies indicate that the leaders of both the TPLF and EPLF were
cheered by Western powers as the new leaders of Africa. This belief largely
originated from the perception of an affinity between their ethnic ideology
and the needs of globalization. From the start, by opting for secession,
Eritrean leaders had clearly sided with the globalist strategy. Did they not
boast time and again about their project of turning very soon Eritrea into a
Singapore of Africa? In effect, Eritreans have always consider themselves as
very resourceful and advanced, especially with manufacturing skills, which,
they believed, compensate for the lack of richness of their country in raw
materials. This association of smallness with dynamism and skillfulness
exactly fits the globalist strategy.

As to the TPLF, globalist forces appreciated its active contribution to
Eritrea's accession to independence; they also valued its narrow ethnic
ideology and its ability to spread the sentiment to other Ethiopian ethnic
groups, especially the Oromo. An ethnically federated Ethiopia has the
advantages of creating the basis for an alliance between ethnic elites that
enjoy legitimacy. Such a federation has no longer any national ambition, any
attempt toward further integration. It will be a sum of distinct and
self-contained ethnic groups whose sole purpose will be to rival for foreign
investments. In case the ethnic federation fails, the existing ethnic
territories will serve as a viable alternative.

This experimental role of Ethiopia perfectly explains why Meles still enjoys
the support of globalist forces. Many Ethiopians are dismayed by the
lenience of international forces toward Meles when arbitrary imprisonments,
massacres of students, and harassment of the opposition forces have become a
defining feature of his regime. Worse yet, despite these flagrant violations
of human rights, the World Peace Prize Awarding Council just recently
honored him with a peace prize for his contributions to global peace and the
Hannam University gave him an honorary doctoral degree in political science.
The authoritative voice of Jonathan Dimbleby speaks of Meles' leadership as
having "made a difference" through the institution of a "programme of
radical reform." (The Observer, Sunday July 28, 2002)

At the same time, however, the United Nations Development Programme releases
a report stating that "Ethiopians are as poor now as they were 20 years
ago." No sooner a reporter of the BBC, David Lyon, under the title
"Ethiopia's New-Found Plenty," revealed that "parts of northern Ethiopia,
which were badly hit by famine a generation ago, are now exporting a food
surplus and are confident that they can survive a year without rain" than
another reporter of the same agency broke the news of a looming famine
through the revelation that "more than eight million people are in need of
food aid after failed rains."

Ethiopians have reason to be angered by these contradictory and confusing
accounts. Interestingly, in his analysis of the Ethiopian reality, Dimbleby
notes that "Ethiopia has met all the demands of the IMF and the World Bank
but is still getting poorer and poorer. He adds: "the truth is that Ethiopia
is at the mercy of a system which, so far, has enriched the rich by
impoverishing the poor. And that is simply not sustainable." (The Observer,
Sunday July 28, 2002) Meles too is quite aware of these drawbacks of
globalization. For example, in his speech at the opening of the Africa
Development Bank annual meeting, "he accused the west of hypocrisy by
calling on African countries to open up their markets, while imposing
tariffs and handing out enormous subsidies to farmers." This practice, he
contended, "serves to drastically reduce the global cake for us all." (All
Africa.com, May 28, 2002).

But these contradictions and complaints do not trouble globalists. They like
Meles as a reliable agent of globalist policy, a reliability confirmed not
only by his attachment to ethnicization, but also by his uncommon decision
to stop the victorious march of the Ethiopian Army towards Asmara and Assab.
Who knows what the collapse of Issayas' regime would have entailed?
Obviously, the inclusion of Assab in Ethiopia would have created a situation
of bitter conflicts fraught with unpredictable consequences. Meles stopped
all these uncertainties and put everything back into the globalist strategy.

Not long ago I wrote an article in this same newspaper asking Ethiopians to
let Assab go for the sake of peace and long-term interests of Ethiopia. My
position has unnecessarily and unjustly angered many Ethiopians. As I see
it, these angry Ethiopians do not exactly realize the kind of adverse forces
that the incorporation of Assab will muster beyond the Eritrean
mobilization. My feeling is that, weakened by internal wars and, above all,
contested in its legitimacy by ethnic resurgence, the Ethiopian state is in
no position to sustain another prolonged war.

If anything, the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea reflects the competitive
tension running in the Horn. To be sure, globalist strategists never
expected that a war would break out between the two countries. Even if the
alliance between the leaders of the TPLF and Eritrean elites looked shaky at
times, they thought that common interests would prevail. On the other hand,
however, the vision of becoming the Singapore of Africa easily convinced
Issayas that Eritrea cannot become attractive to foreign capital unless it
secures a privileged access to Ethiopia's vast markets and raw materials,
and this is not possible unless the Tigrean elite accepts the Eritrean
hegemony.

This means that the war between Eritrea and Ethiopia must be seen in the
context of globalization: Eritrea cannot play the major role of privileged
interlocutor of global capital in the Horn in the face of a more powerful
and united Ethiopia. As BBC's analyst, Patrick Gilkes, puts it, "Eritrea,
with virtually no resources has talked of trying to emulate Singapore,
processing goods for export. This puts it on a collision course with
Ethiopia . . . concerned about being relegated to the status of supplying
cheap labour for Eritrea." In case the projected political ascendancy over
the ruling elite of Ethiopia through the control of the TPLF leadership
fails, the Eritrean leadership had the option of either establishing a more
compliant government through the defeat of the TPLF or paving the way for
the disintegration of Ethiopia by supporting secessionist groups, such as
the OLF.

No globalist strategy, however powerful and omniscient, can fully control
local deviations. The outbreak of the war was one such local escapade,
mostly due to the erratic behavior of Issayas. By contrast, Meles appears as
a more reliable local partner; we just saw that he believes that a global
cake awaits the peoples of the world. Unfortunately, he is besieged by
opposition forces and even lost the full support of his Tigrean basis.
Though the ethnic paradigm he defends agrees with the globalist view, he
seems to be unable to generate the required consensus. In a word,
uncertainty prevails, which is not to the liking of globalist forces.

Meles has the choice of moving toward a more traditional role of the
Ethiopian state by rising beyond the ethnic paradigm through a renewal of
Ethiopian identity. Some of his recent statements seem to convey, although
in a very contradictory form, a slight inclination to revalue certain
implications of ethnicization. This is not surprising: by now Meles must
have noticed that he remains the leader of Ethiopia because he inhabits
Menelik's palace, not because he is Tigrean. Another option is to seek to
re-ignite the Eritrean connection, but with the increasing risk of being
even more alienated from his Ethiopian supports, not to mention the nasty
prospect of dealing with the unpredictable behavior of Issayas.

One thing is clear: Meles is frenetically in search of a new legitimacy, as
illustrated by his attempts to pass for a theoretician of the "new" ideology
of "revolutionary democracy." He knows that, without a new legitimacy, he
cannot have enough authority to demand the sacrifices required to integrate
the Ethiopian economy into the global market, as he is expected to do. The
ethnic ideology now works against him by favoring secessionist forces. If
the globalist strategy goes along with the secessionist analysis, Ethiopia
will be heading for the Yugoslavia scenario.

The only way of averting this gruesome outcome is to have a clear idea of
the dominating forces at work and the general direction they impose to favor
their interests. Most of all, seeing the dwindling strategy of globalist
forces, peoples must rally, more than ever before, behind the common front
of the national state. To the dispersing and dwindling policy of
globalization, "the Wretched of the Earth" must oppose the strength of their
recovered unity. The epoch demands the resurgence of grand nationalism, not
the retreat into ethnic narrowness.

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