-Caveat Lector-

>From http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,786332,00.html

Comment



The real goal is the seizure of Saudi oil

Iraq is no threat. Bush wants war to keep US control of the region

Mo Mowlam
Thursday September 5, 2002
The Guardian

I keep listening to the words coming from the Bush administration about Iraq and I 
become
increasingly alarmed. There seems to be such confusion, but through it all a grim
determination that they are, at some point, going to launch a military attack. The 
response
of the British government seems equally confused, but I just hope that the 
determination to
ultimately attack Iraq does not form the bedrock of their policy. It is hard now to 
see how
George Bush can withdraw his bellicose words and also save face, but I hope that that 
is
possible. Otherwise I fear greatly for the Middle East, but also for the rest of the 
world.

What is most chilling is that the hawks in the Bush administration must know the risks
involved. They must be aware of the anti-American feeling throughout the Middle East.
They must be aware of the fear in Egypt and Saudi Arabia that a war against Iraq could
unleash revolutions, disposing of pro-western governments, and replacing them with
populist anti-American Islamist fundamentalist regimes. We should all remember the
Islamist revolution in Iran. The Shah was backed by the Americans, but he couldn't 
stand
against the will of the people. And it is because I am sure that they fully understand 
the
consequences of their actions, that I am most afraid. I am drawn to the conclusion 
that they
must want to create such mayhem.

The many words that are uttered about Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass
destruction, which are never substantiated with any hard evidence, seem to mean very
little. Even if Saddam had such weapons, why would he wish to use them? He knows that 
if
he moves to seize the oilfields in neighbouring countries the full might of the 
western world
will be ranged against him. He knows that if he attacks Israel the same fate awaits 
him.
Comparisons with Hitler are silly - Hitler thought he could win; Saddam knows he 
cannot.
Even if he has nuclear weapons he cannot win a war against America. The United States
can easily contain him. They do not need to try and force him to irrationality.

But that is what Bush seems to want to do. Why is he so determined to take the risk? 
The
key country in the Middle East, as far as the Americans are concerned, is Saudi 
Arabia: the
country with the largest oil reserves in the world, the country that has been prepared 
to
calm the oil markets, producing more when prices are too high and less when there is a
glut. The Saudi royal family has been rewarded with best friend status by the west for 
its
cooperation. There has been little concern that the government is undemocratic and
breaches human rights, nor that it is in the grip of an extreme form of Islam. With
American support it has been believed that the regime can be protected and will do 
what is
necessary to secure a supply of oil to the west at reasonably stable prices.

Since September 11, however, it has become increasingly apparent to the US
administration that the Saudi regime is vulnerable. Both on the streets and in the 
leading
families, including the royal family, there are increasingly anti-western voices. 
Osama bin
Laden is just one prominent example. The love affair with America is ending. Reports 
of the
removal of billions of dollars of Saudi investment from the United States may be 
difficult to
quantify, but they are true. The possibility of the world's largest oil reserves 
falling into the
hands of an anti- American, militant Islamist government is becoming ever more likely 
- and
this is unacceptable.

The Americans know they cannot stop such a revolution. They must therefore hope that
they can control the Saudi oil fields, if not the government. And what better way to 
do that
than to have a large military force in the field at the time of such disruption. In 
the name of
saving the west, these vital assets could be seized and controlled. No longer would 
the US
have to depend on a corrupt and unpopular royal family to keep it supplied with cheap 
oil. If
there is chaos in the region, the US armed forces could be seen as a global saviour. 
Under
cover of the war on terrorism, the war to secure oil supplies could be waged.

This whole affair has nothing to do with a threat from Iraq - there isn't one. It has 
nothing
to do with the war against terrorism or with morality. Saddam Hussein is obviously an 
evil
man, but when we were selling arms to him to keep the Iranians in check he was the same
evil man he is today. He was a pawn then and is a pawn now. In the same way he served
western interests then, he is now the distraction for the sleight of hand to protect 
the
west's supply of oil. And where does this leave the British government? Are they in on 
the
plan or just part of the smokescreen? The government speaks of morality and the threat
posed by weapons of mass destruction, but can they really believe it?

� Mo Mowlam was a member of Tony Blair's cabinet from 1997-2001

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Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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--- Ernest Hemingway

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