-Caveat Lector- US, Israel could face showdown over Iraq http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/PrinterFull&cid= 1032275858015
JANINE ZACHARIA Sep. 23, 2002 WASHINGTON Barring a massive number of Israeli casualties from an Iraqi strike, senior US administration officials appear united in their opposition to an Israeli counter-strike on Baghdad. That across-the-board opposition suggests a row between Israel and the US is brewing and that Israel could face a similar choice to the one it faced in 1991 acceding to the demands of its number one ally or acting according to what it perceives are its national security interests. "I think that's what it will come down to, at least there's a risk that it will come down to it depending how the thing plays out," a senior administration official said when asked about the possibility of a showdown between the US and Israel. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney oppose Israeli involvement primarily for operational reasons, according to administration sources, while the State Department objects because of the impact it could have on Arab sentiment toward the US and Arab support for the war. "State and Defense [oppose Israeli involvement], although for very different reasons. And that's the kind of thing that guarantees what the answer is going to be," a senior administration official said yesterday. "The military view is operational. That's probably where Rumsfeld and Cheney come out and that's probably enough to carry the day right there," the official added. "It just reflects the basic Pentagon view that they'd rather not have a lot of military operations going on in the same place at the same time that they're not in control of." According to Amatzia Baram, an Iraq expert at the University of Haifa, Israel's reaction will be "surgical, very limited." "Israel will have to show its Arab neighbors and its Arab enemies that you can't harm Israel and get away with it," Baram told the Middle East Institute in Washington yesterday. "If a missile falls in Tel Aviv and causes minimal damage Israel will have to react." With so much US military activity going on, it could be hard, however, for Israel to attack Iraqi targets without US cooperation. The US is promising Israel advance warning. And it is permitting Israel to link its Arrow anti- missile system to US radar to give Israel a quicker response time to any potential Iraqi Scud missile attack. But Israel may not get all it desires. The US could withhold so-called deconfliction codes, as it did in 1991. Israel wanted them to enable Israeli pilots to fly and be able to tell enemy from friendly aircraft, but the US denied the request. So far this time Israel has not asked for the codes, according to Israeli defense sources. But as a potential war with Iraq nears, the request could become more pressing. On Sunday, leading legislators spoke out in unison against an Israeli retaliation against Iraq, saying it could lead to a wider Israeli-Arab war and fuel anti-American sentiment. Senator Joseph Biden (D-Delaware) speculated that US embassies would be burned to the ground. Some Middle East analysts were skeptical yesterday of Biden's prediction. "There may be good reasons for the US to try to urge Israeli restraint in the face of an Iraqi attack, but the fear of Arab popular rioting against US embassies is not one of them," said Robert Satloff, director of policy and strategic planning at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. According to Satloff, over the past two years, despite predictions of how the Arab world would explode because of Israel's actions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the Arab street has been "limp and lifeless." This in part, he said, is because Arab regimes are better equipped to control their populations then they were in the past. "Also, Arabs are more sophisticated than we give them credit for," Satloff said. "They know the difference between unprovoked attack and legitimate retaliation, and would be surprised if any government Israel's as much as their own did not respond to the former with the latter." Nevertheless, Biden's comments and those by Senator Richard Shelby (R-Alabama) and Congressman Henry Hyde (R-Illinois), illustrate the challenges that could lie ahead for the pro- Israel lobby in Washington. So far, Jewish groups have kept a low profile in the Iraq debate, and do not appear concerned about the comments from Capitol Hill or by Rumsfeld's public counsel to Israel to stay out. "President Bush has demonstrated a real understanding of Israel's security needs," said Rebecca Needler, spokeswoman for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. "We are confident that both the US and Israel are working together to ensure that American and Israeli interests are protected." This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1032275858015 [ Back to the Article ] Copyright 1995-2002 The Jerusalem Post - http://www.jpost.com/ <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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