-Caveat Lector-

http://www.emedia.com.my/Current_News/NST/Wednesday/World/20021016080708/Article/

War a threat to global economy

SEOUL, Oct 15:  A recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize for Economics, Joseph
Stiglitz, warned today that a US war against Iraq would have a �very
negative� impact on the global economy.

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He also accused President George W. Bush of "mismanagement" of the US
economy and forcing a global downturn on the rest of the world.

Speaking at the World Knowledge Forum here, Stiglitz said many people
hoping for an economic boom from a war on Iraq would be disappointed.

They confuse what happened in World War II with what could happen today,
he said. World War II helped the world out of global deflation and had a
positive impact on the world economy, he said.

"This current war, if it occurs, is likely to have a high probability of
having a very negative impact," he told journalists.

He said the differences between World War II and a possible war against
Iraq was that World War II was a war of total mobilisation with huge
expenditures.

But a war on Iraq was likely to involve fewer people and less expenditure
in terms of the global economic growth.

"The benefit in terms of the economics of that stimulus (from a US-Iraq
war) is likely to be more than offset by the adverse effect that
uncertainty is having on investment, consumption and the possible advserse
effects on oil prices," he said.

"This is a very different kind of situation from World War II. Therefore,
(there are) much more downside effects in terms of the global economy." He
criticised the Bush administration for opting for tax cuts over stimulus
packages he and other economists advocated. "Now I believe quite strongly
that the Bush administration has mismanaged economic policy for the past
two years," said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor.

He said tax cuts benefited a few rich people while people who really
needed the money, including the unemployed, got very little.

Prospects for the US economy remain clouded, he said as State Governments
face a budget crunch because of reduced revenues which is forcing them to
cut expenditure, depressing the US economy further, he said. � AFP

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