-Caveat Lector-

>From http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-443664,00.html

>>>This time they might go with Iran<<<

World News

October 12, 2002

Iraq

Radical Shias are a worry for Bush as well as Saddam
by Ian Cobain
Our correspondent reports from a city renowned for bloodshed and opposition to the 
Iraqi
regime

Weight of history: within the
walls of the shrine of al- Hussein in Karbala, where pilgrims from Iran and Lebanon 
and as
far south as India and as far north as Azerbaijan clamour each week to visit the site 
where
Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein died in a massacre in AD680, leading to the great
schism between the Sunnis and Shias

WEEPING, praying and invoking the names of their long-dead prophets, half a million
pilgrims teemed through the narrow streets of the Muslim holy city of Karbala in 
southern
Iraq yesterday.

As the crowds streamed towards the al-Hussein mosque, where they clamoured to touch
the shrine at the spot where Muhammad�s grandson died in battle, they were watched from
street corners by young conscripts, chain- smoking and nervously fingering the safety-
catches of their AK47s.

The pilgrims, who travel each week from Iran and Lebanon, from as far south as India 
and
as far north as Azerbaijan, pay little heed to the countless murals showing President
Saddam Hussein�s smiling face, or to the many banners urging Iraqis to vote for him at 
next
week�s one-man election.

For Karbala is a Shia city, the al-Hussein mosque and the nearby al-Abbas mosque are 
both
Shia shrines, and this was the scene of the bloodiest fighting during the Shia 
uprising that
followed the Gulf War.

About 60 per cent of Iraqis are Shia, and they have been largely excluded from power 
and
denied the fruits of the country�s lucrative oil-smuggling trade, because Saddam and 
his
ruling clique are Sunni Muslims, a grouping that counts for 18 per cent of the 
population.

Saddam has ruthlessly repressed this volatile majority, murdering one cleric after 
another
and ordering his largely Sunni Republican Guard to crush any hint of rebellion.

In 1980, shortly before declaring war on Iran, he hanged two of the country�s leading 
Shia
figures. There were further bloody reprisals in 1996 after Shia gunmen crippled his 
elder
son, Uday, when they opened fire on his Porsche. Then, three years ago, the last Grand
Ayatollah of Iraq, Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr, was murdered, together with his two sons.

Despite the years of oppression, the conscripts in Karbala had good reason to be edgy
yesterday: the Shias represent a constant threat to Saddam�s survival. Moreover, as the
White House contemplates a regime change, there is a growing realisation that the
empowerment of the Shias could end in the break-up of Iraq and that the turmoil could 
spill
far beyond its borders.

Karbala may be a mud-coloured city, lying close to the mud-coloured waters of the
Euphrates, but it is a place steeped in blood. It was the massacre here in AD680 of 
Imam
Hussein and his followers that led to the great schism between Sunnis and Shias.

Hussein was attacked as he and 70 supporters were trying to seize control of the 
growing
Islamic empire from the caliphs who had been appointed on the death of his grandfather,
Muhammad. He was shot through the mouth with an arrow, then a troop of horsemen rode
back and forth across his body and his head was carried in triumph from the 
battlefield.

Centuries later there would be slaughter again. In March 1991 the residents of Karbala
joined those of Basra, 315 miles to the south, in the uprising against Saddam. The 
Iraqi
Army fled in terror, about 75 Baath Party officials were hurled from their office 
windows to
be hacked to death by the mob below and it seemed for one heady moment as if the
regime were about to fall.

But no strong leader emerged and there was no support from the West. The Republican
Guard returned 11 days later to perpetrate the worst bloodbath that Karbala has seen.

The guardsmen are said to have been merciless, ploughing through the bazaars in

T72 tanks emblazoned with the slogan �No Shias After Today� and fighting from house to
house until the last rebels sought sanctuary in the magnificent 11th-century 
al-Hussein and
al-Abbas mosques.

The copper-domed shrines are revered almost as much as Mecca by millions of Shias
across the East, yet Saddam�s troops did not hesitate to train their tank guns and 
heavy
artillery on them. The surviving rebels are said to have been hanged from lampposts or
dragged to their deaths behind the T72s. Their families were hunted down and shot.

The shrines have been rebuilt, but some of their grey marble walls remain pock-marked 
by
shrapnel, and fear still enshrouds the city, mingling with the sand that drifts in 
from the
Mesopotamian Desert.

Today there are fears of a fourth historic massacre at Karbala if renewed American and
British attacks on Iraqi forces ignite the city�s religious fervour, economic 
frustration and
hatred of Sunni oppression.

Even on the outskirts of Baghdad, 20 minutes� drive from Saddam�s opulent Radwaniyah
Palace, about a million impoverished Shias are crammed into a sprawling, fly-blown slum
known, ironically enough, as Saddam City. Rotting garbage stands waist-high outside
crumbling 1970s tenement blocks, where aid agencies say that one in seven children die
before their fifth birthday and where a weekly income of �3 is considered a good wage.

The spectre of another Shia rebellion will not only alarm Saddam, it must also disturb
Washington, as it highlights the dangers behind talk of a regime change.

President Bush held out hope of democracy in Iraq in his speech to the United Nations 
last
month, and Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, says that he foresees the country 
being
governed �in a democratic fashion�.

But a democratic Iraq would be a predominantly Shia Iraq and one which may choose to
forge closer ties with its Persian co-religionists in Iran, the second nation in 
President
Bush�s �axis of evil�. Some in the West fear even that a Shia Iraq may become an 
Islamic
state.

Shia supremacy in Iraq could also stir the restless Shia majority in Bahrain, who have 
also
been excluded from power. It could encourage the Kurds in the north, who are largely
Sunni, to press for independence: a scenario that Turkey and Syria, with their own 
large
Kurdish populations, are determined to avoid at any cost.

As the faithful clung to the al-Hussein shrine yesterday, worshipping their prophets 
with an
emotional abandon that was in sharp contrast to the strict self-control of the Sunnis,
rebellion must have been far from their minds. But as they stepped into the sunlight 
and
eyed Saddam�s young soldiers, who knows what they were thinking?


Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times
and The Sunday Times.

Copyright 2002 Times Newspapers Ltd.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A<>E<>R
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Forwarded as information only; I don't believe everything I read or send
(but that doesn't stop me from considering it; obviously SOMEBODY thinks it's 
important)
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--- Ernest Hemingway

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