From:   "Christopher Gould", [EMAIL PROTECTED]

I have received a letter via my MP from Charles Clarke at
the Home Office in which he claims that gun crime in
Switzerland is higher than that in Britain.
I have always thought that the reverse was true.
Can anyone point me in the direction of authoritative
figures with references?
Chris Gould
--
This claim is based on very faulty research conducted by
Pat Mayhew at the Home Office RSD, which was comprehensively
blown out of the water during the course of the Dunblane
Public Inquiry, I am amazed he has the balls to mention it
again.

The Home Office used two sources, the World Health Organisation
and the Killias research.  The Killias research is pretty
stale now, plus it contains serious flaws (related to the
method of statistical analysis) and Killias is a self-confessed
anti-gun advocate.  Much of his research contains very basic
flaws, e.g. saying that the service pistols issued to the
Swiss Army and kept at home are useless to criminals because
they are not concealable, which is obviously nonsense.

The WHO research is less biased, but it's not really detailed
enough, and it contains a flaw in its methodology in that
they represent the figures the same way in the report but
in fact those figures are extrapolated from a huge number
of different sources with myriad reporting methods, and
with something so rare in both countries (i.e. armed
crime) it's not statistically sound.

The other huge mistake the Home Office makes is to claim
that the Swiss Government doesn't keep statistics, which
must come as a big surprise to the Federal Office of Police
who compile the Police Criminal Statistics every year.

It's difficult to compare our stats with their stats, because
the reporting methods are different.  Swiss stats for example
lump homicide and attempted homicide together.  Swiss armed
robbery is fairly stable at about 250-400 reported cases
a year, however ours fluctuates quite substantially, in 1993
there were nearly 6,000, I think last year it was around 800
or so.  So it depends on which year you are comparing as
to whether there is more armed crime per capita.  The
police in Switzerland have a category for "Serious offences
against life and limb" which includes GBH, assault, homicide
and attempted homicide, which is around 150-200 offences
a year.  For the years 1993 and 1994 in E&W the same categories
have around 1,800 offences.  If you work it out per capita
the rates are virtually identical (population of Switzerland
is about 7 million I think, E&W is 56 million), in fact
E&W is slightly ahead of them.

I think if you did a proper statistical analysis over ten
years you would find more armed crime per capita in
Switzerland than in GB, but it's a very tiny difference,
it's not like the comparisons with the US and the UK.  In
both GB and Switzerland the un-PC but true statement is that most
of the armed crime seems to be committed by immigrants and
ethnic minorities.  I did compare the PKS data with the
HO data for armed robbery from the period 1990-1995 during
the Dunblane Public Inquiry and I found the armed robbery
rates were virtually identical in both countries.  However
that data is five years old now.

Steve.


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