BUSINESS WEEK ONLINE April 24, 2000 WHITE HOUSE WATCH by Richard S. Dunham For Election 2000, Gun Control Is One Dangerous Issue Few issues are more emotional or more visceral, and few issues are more politically complex Guns and politics are inseparable on the modern American political scene. For four decades, the National Rifle Assn. has been targeting lawmakers who, in the powerful gun lobby's view, aren't sufficiently supportive of gun owners' rights. In recent years, antigun activists have teamed up with the Clinton Administration to form a countermovement of sorts. Few issues are more emotional or more visceral, and few issues are more politically complex. Here's why: The issue of gun control cuts across traditional political lines like none other. Which Americans are the most likely to favor a ban on the sale of handguns? According to a newly released Pew Research Center poll, it's the wealthiest and best educated -- both normally Republican voting groups. And which Americans are the most opposed to tough gun curbs? Non-college grads and those earning under $30,000 a year -- both historically Democratic constituencies. The gun debate often turns conventional politics on its head. That's why it's so enticing to both parties -- and so dangerous. FLIP SIDE. Some Democrats see a political panacea in taking on the NRA and its most-rabid followers. They note that gun control is popular among key swing constituency groups such as white women, suburbanites, and older voters. They say it reinforces Democratic strengths in the cities and the Northeast. All true. But there's a flip side for the Democrats. Gun control complicates Al Gore's attempts to woo working-class white men and rural voters. And the issue is far less popular once you leave the Eastern seaboard. When Pew asked Americans whether they thought new gun-control laws were more important than enforcing old laws, only voters in the East agreed. The region most resistant to new measures: the Midwest, a key battleground in the 2000 Presidential and congressional elections. What's more, independent voters by 62% to 34% said they would rather enforce current laws than enact new ones. Even the NRA isn't a sure-fire punching bag. It's true that older voters distrust Charlton Heston & Friends: a clear majority of Americans over the age of 50 say the NRA has "too much influence," according to Pew. But a majority of those under 50 have the opposite view, arguing that the NRA has either "the right amount of influence" or even "too little influence." The youngest voters (those under 30) are the most supportive of the NRA. And only 34% of Hispanics say the NRA has too much power -- far fewer than blacks or non-Latino whites. PREPARED COMMENTS. Amid these confusing cross-currents, Al Gore and George W. Bush seem to be looking for openings on the gun issue. Not surprisingly, both candidates marked the one-year anniversary of the murderous rampage at Columbine High School with specially tailored events on Apr. 20. Bush used his appearance in Temple, Tex., to underline his focus on "character education" and values. But he also blasted the Clinton-Gore record on gun crime. "It's important for the next Administration to do something a little different, and that's enforce laws on the books," he said. Democrats will try to transform the debate into a matter of safeguarding the country's children. Gore, highlighting the Administration's "safe schools" initiative in Fort Lee, N.J., on Apr. 20 talked about values and said gun control was not "the one main solution" to youth violence. But he took dead aim on the NRA: "One of the lessons of Columbine is that we have to stand up to the NRA and the gun industry and get guns out of the hands of people who shouldn't have them." Gore also criticized Bush's pro-gun record, noting that the governor signed a law allowing Texans to tote hidden weapons almost anywhere, including churches and synagogues. As the general election campaign gets under way, neither candidate has a clear edge in the gun-control debate. In a head-to-head match, voters said they prefer Gore's approach over Bush's by 42% to 37%, according to Pew. But that doesn't translate into votes for Gore, particularly among wealthy gun foes. Indeed, gun-control enemies seem far more passionate and revved up to vote than their opponents. Unless Gore manages to change the current equation, gun control is unlikely to be a silver bullet for Democrats this year. Dunham is White House correspondent for Business Week. Follow his column twice a month only on BW Online EDITED BY DOUGLAS HARBRECHT -------[Cybershooters contacts]-------- Editor: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Website & subscription info: www.cybershooters.org
