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On 14 Nov 2002 at 14:47, Andrew John Lopata wrote:
> I'm no expert, but a friend of mine in the military suggested
> that invading Iraq now would be a lot different than the Gulf
> War. He said that urban combat, which will be necessary to
> depose Hussein, is the most difficult and dangerous type of
> combat there is.
The last time the US engaged in urban combat, Somalia, US
troops took significant casualties, and innocent bystanders
suffered enormous casualties.
In Afghanistan, urban combat was avoided by three a dimensional
envelopment. The enemy inside the city was threatened by
ground troops outside the city, from the sky, and by subversion
from within the city. It was this final threat, subversion
from within, combined with containment from above and around,
that provoked capitulation.
This third element, subversion from within, may well be
unachievable in Iraq, or if it is achievable, the regular army
not very deft at getting it done.
For the Iraq war to be completed without enormous civilian
casualties, massive destruction of infrastructure, and
intolerable US casualties, successful political warfare is
likely to be essential.
> There is no readily available alternate government to install
> in Hussein's place. The resulting destabilization in the
> region will likely result in a U.S. military presense in the
> country for a much longer time than in the Gulf War.
When the US defeated Nazi germany, the nazi government was
largely obliterated, and the remaining apparatus of government
mostly signed up with the German communist party, which had
been the second largest party before the nazis, and which was
subservient to the Soviet Union. Thus the US eventually had
to suppress every vestige of German government and foster a new
government from nothing. It took about five years for a
plausibly German government to get its hands on the reins of
power, and few more years for it to get rid of the institutions
and apparatus of nazism.
--digsig
James A. Donald
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