At 12:54 PM 6/18/00 -0400, Tim May wrote:
>But the interesting question is not whether _some_ customers will use
>PetDotCom for ordering pound-sized blocks of goldfish food, but
>whether _enough_ customers will use PetDomCom to justify its
>currently still-rich, though sinking, stock price.
Ignore the current frenzy. Imagine the SEC's IPO requirements
are raised to a real standard. The convenience and comparison benefits
of net shopping still persist.
I'm not talking about petdotcom 'valuation'. I loathe the
airheaded investments the masses are betting on, turning the
market into a giant lottery.. basically a ponzi scheme if
dividends are not paid..
>Niche markets and all. My point being that most of the dollar volume
>in pet stores is in the big sacks of food, the collars and leashes
>that people want to look at first
The $ is in expensive name brand (ie, overpriced) items, not "big bags"
that even grocery stores carry. Smaller packages have higher margins.
, and so on. (Including the goldfish
>in the tanks, that kids usually clamor for...not exactly a great
>market for online sales.)
*Goldfish* are usually sold as feeders, as mine were before they were
liberated. The expensive (and high-margin) fish are more fragile (and
flashy).
>Truth is often about making bets. Instead of proving or disproving
>some point, the better question is "What are the odds?" Even street
>kids with no math training can figure out bets.
Truth is often about ignoring local disturbances and looking for
underlying trends. Again, the current (or pre-collapse) stock frenzy
is irrelevent to the benefits of net shopping.
>The question is not whether _some_ customers use PetDotCom, or
>Pets.com, or WebVan, etc., but whether the businesses will survive
>and thrive. And, even more succinctly, is it a good investment to put
>money into the companies?
Actually I bought from neither of those, and I don't spend
attention on the comings and goings of trendy mega-dot-coms.
Investment decisions require in-depth knowledge of the domain,
which requires some passion to pursue; pet food just doesn't do it for me.
So let the stores and investors seduce and bicker; I'm only
arguing that selling atoms over the net is going to persist
just like selling bits.
>Pets.com recently bought out part of Petstore.com. And yet it's
>market cap remains a paltry $65m. Share prices have dropped from $8
>to $2 in recent months.
Fools and their money... take a look at blowthedotoutyourass.com
if you haven't seen it yet..
>So, better order those one pound blocks of goldfish food online while
>there's still time.
Y2K supplies for the fish... actually I got tired of paying grocery
or pet store rates for tiny cans..
I am happy with numerous unmerged businesses (or even a
monolithic amazon) competing for my business, so long as they're
convenient, cheap, easy to use and have a complete inventory (in my
experience neither the online nor mortar *chains* carry bulk food ---margin
is too low to support their advertising budget, I suppose.)
