Ten technologies to watch in 2003
By Rupert Goodwins
ZDNet (UK)
January 2, 2003, 8:34 AM PT
Robots, cars, power and light�-these are just some of the sectors that are
expected to see action next year.
1. Wireless networks
We're in the middle of a wireless revolution, and next year will be more of
the same. Bluetooth is working and cheap, 802.11a and 802.11g will bring 55
megabits a second to your radio network, and a whole host of small, cheap,
low power devices may yet give us the automated, computerized home that
we've promised ourselves since the 1950s. Look out for Zigbee, the low
power, low speed technology promised to be cheaper than Bluetooth and to
run for months on ordinary batteries, but it has competitors; with
Microsoft launching Bluetooth systems that don't work with other Bluetooth
devices, beware the fragmentation of the market into different semi-standards.
2. Location-based services
You might not know where you are, but your mobile phone does. The network
operators are already talking about beaming adverts to your phone or PDA
when you're in the vicinity of a shop; somewhat more usefully, the same
technology will tell you where to get petrol, cash, food or help, and
automatically summon the closest free taxi to you. At the same time, GPS
satellite navigation technology is getting much cheaper and more reliable
and will be built into more things. Including active pet-collars, although
quite why you'll need to know where Tiddles is to within five meters
anywhere on the earth's surface is not entirely clear.
3. Holographic storage
Holographic storage is real science fiction stuff, with lasers writing
complex three-dimensional patterns to optical recording media. It's also
the epitome of next year's hot product, as people have been promising
amazing things 'next year' since the mid-nineties--giving hard disks and
solid-state storage ample opportunity to keep up. But IBM is still keen, as
are a handful of small start-ups, and the promise of terabyte storage in
tiny spaces still hangs tantalizingly just out of reach.
4. Solar power
The trouble with solar cells has been that they take more energy to make
than they produce during their lifetime--all that silicon smelting,
purifying and processing. This makes the idea of plastic solar power, using
organic compounds that you mix up and spread out like paint, very
appealing. This year has seen a number of research departments and
companies produce prototypes: they don't make much power, they're not very
robust and they're not ready to come out and play just yet, but the
potential is vast.
5. RFID
Expect 2003 to be filled with radioactive dust: the motes will be
radio-frequency identity chips, and the activity comes from the scanners
that will monitor their progress through the world. The idea is that
physical items get labeled with RFID chips which can be read from up to 20
meters away, and then manufacturers and distributors flood the supply chain
with scanners hooked up to central databases. Gillette's just ordered half
a billion RFID chips to put on its razors: one day soon, you'll be walking
around with enough transponders in your clothing and stuff you bought to be
tracked from Mars. Just thought you'd like to know.
6. Telematics
Cars are getting cleverer, but not so the car makers--who still haven't
adopted a universal standard for in-car networks and IT. There are many
contenders--OSEK/VDX, MOST, IDB-1394--each of which does something better
than the others, but FireWire and Bluetooth are likely to be a part of
whatever ends up in the mix. The ideal, where you can buy electronic
peripherals for your car with the same choice, interoperability and ease of
installation as PC add-ons, is getting closer, but for now if you want to
have an MP3 server in your Skoda that updates itself by Wi-Fi whenever the
car is parked outside, you'll have to do it yourself.
7. Robotics
Robots are getting commoner: you can now buy lawn mowers and vacuum
cleaners that bumble around under their own power. Philips is working on
'ludic robots' that try to be come unpredictable, amusing companions,
Sony's AIBO dog has already spawned a new generation of smarter artificial
canines, and the company has demonstrated its bipedal, humanoid SDR-4X,
which can recognize faces and up to 60,000 words, work out a path across a
room using its stereoscopic vision and dance in a most beguiling if
slightly unsettlingly fluid manner. It should be available next year for
the same price as 'a low-end luxury car'.
8. Lighting
You may already have a key ring LED torch, have noticed LED traffic lights
popping up or even replaced the bulb in your Maglight with a solid-state
alternative. These applications are just the beachhead for light-emitting
diodes, which are producing more and purer light than ever before. They use
a tenth as much power and last thousands of times longer than incandescent
lights, but still cost twice as much as fluorescents to build. That'll
change, if not this year then next--oh, and you can make them change color
at will. Expect that dimmer switch in the living room to become a
red-green-blue mixing control--or better yet, just have a wireless LAN node
built in.
9. Gaming
Of course, there'll be better graphics in the next generation of games
consoles, but the real fun will come through broadband multiplayer
environments, complex links into games via mobile phones and emails, and
better-than-ever artificial intelligence, economic models and modding.
Already, a small cult of machinima has started up, using game engines as
studios to create movie-like scenes. Hollywood has always worried about
fans taking over its valuable properties: now it looks like online gaming
will go the same way. Just don't think about slash fiction.
10. Displays
Spies report that you can search the whole of Akihabara, Tokyo's high-tech
retail wonderland, and not find a single TV or monitor using a cathode ray
tube. With more factories gearing up to produce 17-in LCD panels, and even
bigger sizes coming on stream, 2003 will be the first year in which LCD
displays outsell CRTs -- they've currently got between 20 percent and 30
percent of the market, depending on who you talk to. That's bad news for
other display technologies, both established like plasma and speculative,
like light-emitting polymer.
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