From the days of the good soldier schwejk a bad attitude will take you a
long way in todays army.
http://literature.school.dk/frame_CzechoslovakiaHasek.htm
While waiting for 'General Summer', Saddam could do worse than study
Zbig.FROM...
"...And in a way, given their paranoia, given their condition, but also in
all fairness given some of the saber rattling and name calling that has
come from us, may well be convinced that if they disarm, if they get rid of
whatever they may still have, and Blix makes a strong case for suspicion,
that they will be more vulnerable to military action by us. And therefore
they'll be depriving themselves of some deterrent if can you call it that.
The importance of deployment dynamics
JIM LEHRER: The peace option. What do you say to those who say wait a
minute, we've got 150,000 troops, either there, in the area or on the way
there, we have a huge armada of planes and ships. Can we afford not to go
to war now? Can the president afford not to use them?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: That's a tough one. But ultimately there is so much at
stake in this that I do not see us acting simply because of deployment
dynamics. The Pakistanis and the Indians last year deployed close to a
million men, and they were about to go to war. They haven't withdrawn most
of them, but they haven't gone to war.
If we have to go to war, I think we have to be very conscious of the fact
that at stake is not only the issue of disarming Iraq, which is important
in itself, but at stake is also the legitimacy of our global leadership,
the relationship with our allies, particularly in that context, our ability
to establish precedence for dealing with other issues that are similar in
nature, proliferation, North Korea, and so forth, and last but not least
even the world being a viable economy. So we have to have a strong
compelling case, hopefully a strong international consensus on behalf of
military action if it comes to that.
The reactions of traditional allies
JIM LEHRER: How do you read the attitudes of the French and Germans and
others who are our traditional allies in this?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Well, that's hard to say. But I have the feeling,
following the press closely, going to Europe regularly, that some of it is,
as the critics of the French and the Germans say, envy, resentment of
American power, feeling that we are impatient, overly assertive.
JIM LEHRER: Throwing our weight around.
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Exactly. Some of it, however, I think is the product
of some of the rather demagogic, almost warmongering statements that were
coming out of the administration periodically. The president made a very
good speech to the U.N. on September 12. But some of his off-the-cuff
remarks may go over well in the United States, but they seem to convince
the Europeans that he's really eager for war and that he doesn't give a
damn about anybody else.
And I think that fed into the equation and created a sense of resentment
and maybe even conviction that the whole U.N. business is a charade, that
we are seeking an excuse, almost at all costs, to go to war. Now this may
not be justified on their part, but we have to take it into account.
JIM LEHRER: Do you see them as a lost cause, do you think it's conceivable
that France and Germany could ever be on board for the use of force against
Iraq?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Yes, I do. I think if we persist in the inspections
for a while at least, it would keep making a more compelling case, and I
think recently Powell has done quite well in doing so. If the inspections
begin to surface, which Blix articulated today, the case actually gets
stronger, and the pressure on Saddam to comply increases. And if he doesn't
comply, I think the chances of consensus are greater than if we keep saying
to the Europeans we're going to go to war, we're going to go very soon and
we don't care what the U.N. says in effect, we have the right to go to war.
Because ultimately people ask what is so imminently dangerous to us if we
don't go to war?
We ourselves are not saying that Iraq is an imminent threat. The president,
very correctly, the president very correctly said on September 12th, Iraq
is a grave and gathering threat: Grave and gathering. He didn't say
imminent. And he's right. The problem is left untouched, unresolved, it
will become worse and worse. But it is not an imminent threat. But I think
the whole issue will come to a head, as I said earlier, somewhere around
mid-March.
Moving closer to war?
JIM LEHRER: And if Iraq does not seize the opportunity to cooperate,
then that helps the United States make its case with France and Germany and
the rest of the world?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Absolutely. I think it increases the chances of
abstention on the part of some of the veto-wielding Security Council
states, and increases the prospect that others may be on board in some
fashion, either in terms of the military action itself, or equally
important, in helping us absorb the costs and the difficulties of the
aftermath of the war. And we need our allies -- in the first instance, even
on a legitimate military action, and in the second instance to bear the
burdens of what could be a prolonged and very costly occupation.
JIM LEHRER: All the details aside that we have just talked about, what most
Americans want to know tonight, after a momentous day like this, did we
move closer to war or did we move further away from war, in your opinion?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: I can't prove it, and you're asking me for essentially
the kind of an intuitive judgment.
JIM LEHRER: Exactly. Exactly.
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: I think maybe a step or two away, rather than closer
to, in part because it strengthens, today strengthens the case against Iraq
and increases the pressure on Iraq to comply. And I think there's still a
chance that at the last minute, when faced with the prospect of military
disruption and eventually personal death, Saddam will comply. And therefore
we have to always balance deliberation, not be saber rattling too much,
with determination. Do things that do convince people that we're ready to
act and let Blix develop the case that Iraq in effect is not fully complying.
JIM LEHRER: What do you think of Blix's job that he did today?
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: I think he did a very good job, I think he did a very
good job. For one thing, I think, maybe that was not his intention. He
provided some of the arguments to the effect that there is a serious
problem with Iraq, that the administration for a variety of reasons has not
been willing to provide, nor for that matter share the evidence that it
claims it has.
JIM LEHRER: Dr. Brzezinski, thank you very much.
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Thank you.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june03/brzezinski_1-27.html
