Bush's war timetable unravelling
Owen Bowcott, Ewen MacAskill, Gary Younge in New York and Suzanne
Goldenberg in Baghdad
Thursday February 20, 2003
The Guardian
The Bush administration's determination to keep to a tight timetable that
would see its forces ready to go to war against Iraq by early March is in
danger of coming unstuck.
Plans to open a northern front against Iraq - seen as vital to ensure a
pincer movement against Baghdad - were looking shaky last night as Turkey
resisted an ultimatum from Washington to accept US troop deployments or
forfeit a multi-billion dollar compensation package.
The White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, warned Ankara it had been
presented with a final financial offer - believed to exceed $26bn - and
that a response was needed. "There comes a moment when plans must be made,
decisions must be made, and it cannot stretch on indefinitely," he said.
The trouble with Turkey is compounded by fresh diplomatic hurdles. The US
and Britain have been forced to postpone until next week the publication of
a second UN resolution designed to marshal support within the security
council for military action.
The resolution will now not be put to a vote before early March, following
another report by the chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix. British jitters
over persuading the UN to back war were underlined yesterday when officials
insisted that they would press ahead with military action even if the
resolution were heavily defeated.
The likelihood of such a defeat has deepened with the open rift between the
US and France and Germany which was again on display yesterday. The US
secretary of state, Colin Powell, in effect accused the two European
countries of being too cowardly to go to war.
"It is not a satisfactory solution to continue inspections indefinitely
because certain countries are afraid of upholding their responsibility to
impose the will of the international community," Mr Powell said.
But the most urgent problem facing the US in its push to war is Turkey,
traditionally a staunch Nato partner. The Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, indicated yesterday there was little sign of the impasse being
resolved quickly, saying there were no plans for a parliamentary vote this
week on allowing US troops on Turkish soil.
Failure by Turkey to open its bases to American troops would mean that US
transport ships carrying thousands of servicemen and essential equipment
would have to be re-routed to the Gulf or elsewhere. Any diversionary
attack against Baghdad from the north may then have to be scaled back
dramatically. The block on US servicemen might also leave the Kurds
vulnerable to an Iraqi counter-attack.
As a fallback position, US special service troops and Kurdish fighters have
been upgrading three airstrips in northern Iraq which might be used as
advance supply positions. But the US would be denied the modern
infrastructure of the main Turkish airbases such as Incirlik, Batman and
Diyarbakir.
The latest opinion polls in Turkey suggest that 90% of the electorate is
opposed to war.
Turkey's resistance to participating in an unpopular war, which it fears
would undermine its weakened economy, has been bolstered by the strength of
anti-war protests around the world last weekend.
The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, admitted the lack of cooperation
was causing some discomfort: "Obviously, the more assistance one gets the
easier it is. The less assistance one gets, the more difficult it is." He
predicted an eventual Turkish climbdown.
The disarray over military planning will boost the Iraqi government, which
has already been buoyed by Mr Blix's last report as well as by worldwide
anti-war demonstrations. UN officials said yesterday that the Iraqi
government has been emboldened to the point where it sees no urgency in
meeting the weapons inspectors' call for deeper cooperation.
In a move which suggests that the inspectors are taking a tougher stance,
Mr Blix has decided to ask Iraq to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles,
diplomatic sources said last night.
Iraq's response to the demand will be a crucial test of the inspection system.
UN officials in Baghdad also said yesterday that they had detected a
disturbing shift in Baghdad's attitude in the last few days. They say the
protests have encouraged Iraq to believe it can turn the divisions in the
security council to its advantage, a strategy that could stall the speedy
progress sought by Mr Blix, who is expected to make a further report to the
security council around March 6 rather than, as suggested by Washington and
London, on February 28.
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