I should have added that this is how I understand it now.  Assuming 50 doors
and 1 car.

The chance of picking the right door initially is very unlikely right? (2%
chance).  It is much more likely the car is behind one of the other 49 doors
right?  Just because the presenter opens the 48 doors that have the goats
doesn't change the fact that the car is still likely to be behind one of the
other 49 doors.  Since there is only one door not opened, this has the most
chance of having the car (98%).

I'm converted!

Ross.

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Ross Levis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

I see the point.  The opening of the doors is not random.  It is specified
that only goat doors will be opened.  If the opening of the doors was
random, then the equation would go to 50/50, but it would mean that most of
the time, the car door would also be opened, and in doing so, would ruin the
game.

Ross.

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