Right, so after some more debugging, thanks to Steve for parsing the apt
output, the total list of problems is the following.

 - update-notifier-common attempts to run patch but doesn't depend on it, the 
failure is ignored so not causing a critical bug
 - the resolver fails to decide to remove librasero-media0 to make 
launchpad-integration installable
 - the resolver tries to keep the old evolution-plugins, breaking libnspr in 
the process
 - libgnome2 is required by the upgrade but not on the media
 - openoffice.org-core is needed by the upgrader but doesn't exist in the 
archive
 - some other openoffice.org packages are required by the upgrader but not on 
the media
 - the upgrader requires ".*screen.*" to be installed instead of "^screen$" 
making the upgrade fail if any package containing the work screen is removed by 
the upgrader

And the matching list of changes:
 - update-notifier-common needs to depend on patch
 - launchpad-integration needs to break on libbrasero-media0
 - libnspr4-0d needs to break on evolution-plugins (<< 3.2.0-0ubuntu2)
 - seed libgnome2 on alternate
 - add transitional package openoffice.org-core to openoffice.org
 - fix removal blacklist to use "^screen$"

** Also affects: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided
       Status: New

** Also affects: nspr (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided
       Status: New

** Also affects: openoffice.org (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided
       Status: New

** Changed in: openoffice.org (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Invalid

** Changed in: nspr (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Invalid

** Changed in: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Invalid

** Changed in: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: nspr (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: openoffice.org (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: Confirmed => Triaged

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu Precise)
     Assignee: Canonical Foundations Team (canonical-foundations) => Stéphane 
Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: openoffice.org (Ubuntu Precise)
   Importance: Undecided => Critical

** Changed in: openoffice.org (Ubuntu Precise)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: nspr (Ubuntu Precise)
   Importance: Undecided => Critical

** Changed in: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu Precise)
   Importance: Undecided => Critical

** Changed in: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu Precise)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: nspr (Ubuntu Precise)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided => Critical

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Critical => Medium

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: nspr (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: Triaged => In Progress

** Changed in: launchpad-integration (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: Triaged => In Progress

** Also affects: update-notifier (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided
       Status: New

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided => Medium

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu Precise)
       Status: New => Triaged

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu Precise)
   Importance: Undecided => Medium

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu Precise)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

** Changed in: update-notifier (Ubuntu)
     Assignee: (unassigned) => Stéphane Graber (stgraber)

-- 
You received this bug notification because you are a member of Ubuntu
Desktop Bugs, which is subscribed to launchpad-integration in Ubuntu.
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1029531

Title:
  cdromupgrade from Lucid to Precise failed with unmet dependencies
  without network connection

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