Hi,

I hope this is a good place to share these thoughts, but given it's the
"all things CA" discussion place, it seems to fit.

In a recent post, Let's Encrypt mentions plans for very-short-lived
certificates with a lifetime of 6 days:
https://letsencrypt.org/2024/12/11/eoy-letter-2024/
There have been other discussions going in similar directions, e.g.,
a proposed 45 days cap on certs.

I have some concerns with this direction. I think there were good
reasons to shorten certificate lifetimes in the past. Not having
multi-year certificates is a good thing, as we no longer have
multi-year transition periods to flush out things from the ecosystem.
It's probably also good to shorten cert lifetimes to values that
strongly encourage automation.

I get why people want even shorter certs. People have been trying to
fix revocation, and I think everyone eventually got to the conclusion
that fixing revocation is hard. Replacing revocation with very short
certs is a natural idea.
But I think there's a point where the benefits of even shorter
lifetimes should be balanced against some downsides.

One of the biggest improvements in the WebPKI/CA ecosystem in recent
years was the introduction of Certificate Transparency. And one of the
things CT has brought us was that it allows many people to monitor the
WebPKI ecosystem for irregularities.

But that, of course, relies on people actually doing that. And
monitoring CT becomes more challenging with increasing volumes of
certificates.

The volume of CT-logged certs is already enormous, and it's already
challenging to deal with this. I'm, e.g., scaninng CT-logged certs for
compromised keys.

Many rely not on actually reading CT logs, but utilize crt.sh. It is
great that this service exists, but I'd like to point out the following:
* There's currently no other service like crt.sh. It's essentially a
  single point of failure of a lot of "WebPKI security stuff" people do.
* crt.sh is experiencing challenges with availability and cert
  backlogs, likely because dealing with this volume is challenging.

In essence, many of us (me included) rely on crt.sh doing the hard work
to deal with CT logs.

Imagining something like a more than 10x increase in cert volumes (which
would be the consequence of 6-day certs as the norm) probably means
many people will just stop utilizing CT to find security issues in the
WebPKI ecosystem. Add to that the fact that, depending on how fast the
Quantum Cryptopocalypse will materialize itself, we may also have to
increase the size per certificate quite substantially.
I think this should be considered when discussing very-short-lived
certs.

-- 
Hanno Böck - Independent security researcher
https://itsec.hboeck.de/
https://badkeys.info/

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