On Wed, Feb 25, 2015 at 9:38 AM, Carlos Velasco < carlos.velasco.bla...@gmail.com> wrote:
> What I was trying to point is: Flash Player is not an Adobe's bussiness > core tool right now, and depending absolutely from a company which is not > investing hard on it is the way to certain death, maybe not today, not > tomorrow, let's see in a couple of years. > That would hold true in the US Corporate golden era, which is dying. I recommend this article from Ray Kurzweil: http://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/12/are_you_acceler.html Ray's work and lectures completely changed the way I looked at technology and evolution for the past 15 years. It allowed me to anticipate trends and disrctions years, when not a decade ahead of the crowd and industries. If it speaks to you, I recommend his blog and lectures from early 2000s: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns He has become a bit too merchandised in recent years, it is kinda vulgar, dilutes his point (selling vitamin pills when talking about Singularity is only working in America), and undermine his authority. Still, the man is an advisor of US military and secret services on the topics of singularity and nanotechnology, and predicted mobile trends way back with amazing granularity and acuracy (I wish he was Adobe CEO). The TED talk is when is started to get weird to me: http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us So, basically, let's forget everything we think we know about the future, and consider that most of what you believe to be sci-fi and expect for thousand years from now will actually happen within our lifetime. The same way, entire community are going to raise from povrety to rich-states capita in a matter of years. If you think Facebook is bringing Internet to the poor by philantropy, think twice... it is the only way they have left to solve their single digit plumeting growth besides China and kids below 13 yo. In the same idea, the entire corporate world (including both for profit and nonprofit) is going to be disrupted, in ways that I believe to be of greater impact on humanity that both the digital revolution of late 1990 and the social revolution of early 2000. They are actually colluding and are now the driving force behind the peer revolution. Basically, we run the show. Not corporations, not networks, not fancy CEOs. Each and every of us have now the voice and reach of the president of a state haf a decade ago. Few of us can lead communities to take down entire products, or corporations with Twitter alone. None of us need a bank to make a movie, start a business. We do not need credit card to buy medical treatment we can't afford. We no longer need large charity organization to make a difference in our communities. And we developers surely no longer need Adobe. Do you follow the point? Open sourcing the player is their decission, nothing that the community has > right to complain about, nothing at hand to force them to do so.. That is correct. It might be because it is a huge shameful mess after years of third world therapy. It might be because the executive branch is actually smarter than it looks and know very well that the tiny bit piece of proprietary is what make possible for Adobe to push innovation with a direct entry on virtually any screen without to have to sit at the W3C circus table and talk it out for years, to have it then sabotaged by each vendor fancy engineering teams on corporate leeches. But who cares? Those who need the drama to cover up their own sh*t. We do not. But we all know the product is gold... And that is all what matters, because for the same reasons I tried to summ up above, consumers are becoming very smart! Try to push on the digital natives what Silicon Valley, including Jobs, has been pushing on the baby boomers. Good luck, they will tear you aprts across social networks and might even hack you down. > Then come on, the only way to maintain and gain market is to leave Adobe > dependencies, have a strong support on IDEs, SDK and VMs, and returning > back to the market as a new and powerful independent product brand. > First of all, a lot have changes. For instance, only AIR has a webkit integrated, right? And the only reason for that was to keep the player tiny, so people in Africa or emerging contries can download it with a modem in 2003. Who cared for 50MB today? Let's load it up and be the browser. Just an example for illustration purpose, food for thoughts. The questions are: Is there enough people standing for the product to > maintain such a huge technology? Will they do it for free? Are there ways > to ensure the product development costs. That will be unlimited. Want to run a labs and experiment a crowd of 10,000 developers working on some pieces? Let's do it. Need to invente new project management methodology and workflow to make it possible? Let's do it. Need $200K just for the chatroom cloud computing? Let's call google. Want to try artificial intelligence on code review? Let's bring IBM. As of today, myself alone, with zero support or community, have been granted nearly $10K/month, actually $95K/year in software licensing and cloud computing credit by Microsoft, IBM, Google and Rackspace for Open Screen Project and iSocialWatch, earlier is for us, latter is for consumers, the whole think is to disrupt Silicon Valley with Flash. Before to laugh, wait for it :)
