This is a cute idea. Discount old data and revert to the prior. Should be very straightforward. I don't know of a use off-hand, but I will keep an eye out for it.
On Tue, May 17, 2011 at 11:33 AM, Dmitriy Lyubimov (JIRA) <[email protected]>wrote: > Also i experimented with yet another biased estimator for binomial sums > (similar to use of beta disitribution as a conjugate prior for binomial > distribution) that allows to converge on a predefined value P_0 (similar to > beta distribution mode converging to 0.5 with n going to 0) under two > circumstances: 1) there's a lack of history (as in beta-distribution-based > estimate). 2) there's lack of _recent_ history. >
