On Sun, 2005-07-31 at 10:18 -0400, Lars D. Noodén wrote:

> The key quote is "Microsoft wants to increase Office revenues fourfold by
> the end of the decade", given that the profit margin for MS Office is
> already around 70% - 80%,

And that is probably without any real pressure to be efficicient. If
they really were squeezed as most other industries are, I bet they could
pay the overhead necessary to keep MSO going on less than 10% of the
revenue but as you say that only increases revenues by maybe 10-15% not
400%

>  that's a rather outrageous goal.  

Pie in the sky. Given that prices will be forced down further they need
to get maybe 10 times the take up. I can't see where all these new
customers are going to come from. They might believe they can turn all
the pirates into paying customers but that is not at all likely. They
are just as likely to force them into moving to OOo. We need to work
with Microsoft to kill piracy ;-) Even if it gave them a short term
boost, I think it would give us a long term bigger one. He who laughs
last laughs longest.

> Based on past 
> behavior, I'd expect the strategy to occur via file format lock-in.

Changing the file format is just as likely to lock out the 80% of MSO
users who haven't bothered to upgrade.

> However, uptake of the newest versions of MSO just aren't happening in big 
> enough numbers to make that happen in the same way as for earlier 
> versions so it'll have to try a new tactic.  It will probably involve 
> legal maneuvering, perhaps, having failt to get the CIID pushed through, 
> MS will take on member states one on one quietly, behind the scenes and 
> set the stage for enforcing all the XML and other junk patents.

Which will get challenged by other large companies with big patent
portfolios. That is the road to MAD with only the lawyers benefiting.

I'm glad I don't have their problem. I don't see any really sure way of
resolving things in the longer term. 

-- 
Ian Lynch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
ZMSL


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