On 2003-12-03T13:03:07-0800, Martin Stone Davis wrote:
That's fine too. And here's an even better idea: to make it easier to read if DDRA is near 0 or 1, we should display the sequence like this: "0(124) 1 0(56) 1" to indicate a sequence of 124 0's followed by a 1 followed by 56 0's followed by a 1.
And I think you have just found a good way to calculate the estimator: Just remember the last X transitions (good figure for X would be 10-25). In your example above (you remembered 3 transitions) the average would be (1+1)/(124+1+56+1) = .010989010
Advantage: easy to compute, moderate in memory consumption (10-25 integers for each estimator), good in adaption; except Disadvantage: Takes longer to adapt from exactly 0% to exactly 100% if there are no 50% values in between.
Kendy
Another disadvantage: If we get a million consecutive successes (say, over months), and then suddenly we start getting all failures, we will have to wait for a million failures before the estimated rate reaches 50%. I think the SelfAdjustingDecayingRunningAverage works better.
-Martin
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