Thank you, Calle and Alex for the detailed response. But, I guess the feature is still under development. Could you please let us know its roadmap?
Archana Chillala Application Developer Email [email protected] Telephone +91 9100960533 <+91+9100960533> [image: ThoughtWorks] <http://www.thoughtworks.com/?utm_campaign=archana-chillala-signature&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thoughtworks-email-signature-generator> On Mon, Dec 26, 2016 at 7:04 PM, Calle Hedberg <[email protected]> wrote: > Archana, > > Alex' description is a bit short. Firstly, yes, the predictors are > intended to be used to derive thresholds that can be compared to actual > events. Some examples: > - for a disease like Cholera, the threshold will normally be 1 (confirmed) > case, so no calculated/predicted threshold is required. 1 confirmed case = > outbreak. > - for a disease like Typhoid Fever, the threshold will higher but > dependent on area history. WHO generally use the previous 5 years to > determine what is the "normal" number of cases in an area (e.g. the US will > have 400 cases of typhoid fever reported per year). T > hat "normal" number is what the DHIS2 predictors will provide, and you can > then establish a validation rule saying that if actual number of reported > cases in e.g. one week is more than the normal number per week multiplied > with factor x, then you flag it as a possible outbreak. > - for diseases that are commonly seasonal like Malaria, the predictor > values vary through the year. 100 cases during summer-time is business as > usual, 100 cases in winter-time is all alarm-bells ringing. > > Secondly, predictor values can be used for on-the-fly calculations and > comparisons - where predictor values in theory might change daily due to > new data being incorporate into the calculations - or they can be based on > historical data only, persisted and regarded as stable for let us say one > year. That debate is still on-going, but my guess is we will end up with > IDSR systems generally using predictor values with some stability. > > Thirdly, predictor methodology will increasingly not only rely on > historical data but also predicted environmental factors: So in the case of > malaria, if global weather patterns indicate way above normal rains, you > would up your predictor values accordingly. From another perspective, this > could be regarded as a basic early warning system (note: most useful early > warning system would require more sophisticated modeling than such > predictor+) > > Fourthly, and this goes beyond disease surveillance: predictors can be > used for short term forecasting of performance. We did stuff like that in > Cape Town already 10-15 years ago: you predict total performance for the > financial year by predicting (= extra-polating) from the performance during > e.g. the first six months. The idea being that under-performing areas are > identified early and in time for mitigating efforts to be made. As should > be obvious, you can use the same predictor value calculations to assist > with setting short-term and medium-term TARGETS. > > Fifthly, predictors might assist with making sense of historical data > collected with diverse frequencies and methodologies: Routine data, sample > surveys, census, household surveys, case-based data, etc. Predictor values > can thus be a result of triangulating multiple disparate data sources. > > Finally, and now we are into scenario modelling: Predictors can be used as > one component of future "what-if" scenarios, where you have a sophisticated > 5-10-20 years model with inputs from demography, disease patterns, climate, > human/economic development, global trade patterns, human resources, drugs, > technology, and so forth. The DHIS is nowhere near that territory yet, but > it is likely to become a focus area in some years. > > The main impediment to further development of these predictor values right > now seems to be that few if anybody has used them to any extent (yet) - > that will hopefully be rectified during 2017 with more widespread > implementation of IDSR on the DHIS2 platform. > > Regards > Calle > > On 26 December 2016 at 13:15, Alex Tumwesigye <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> Dear Archana, >> >> Predictors replaced surveillance rules in data quality app. They have >> exactly the same functionality as surveillance rules. They are still under >> development since they are meant to be persisted and uniquely identified. >> They are used in the idsr for threshold calculations. >> >> Alex >> >> >> On Monday, December 26, 2016, Archana Chillala <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Hi, >>> >>> We are using latest revision of DHIS 2.25. We find a new metadata entity >>> called "*Predictors*" in the 'others' module of maintenance app. We >>> have also gone through the documentation about Predictors and it tells what >>> it is and how we can configure it, explaining all its properties. But we >>> are not clear as to where they can be used or where could we look for its >>> predicted values on the UI and which particular app to look at for the >>> same. Could you please let us know, how and where can the predictors >>> functionality be leveraged? >>> >>> While testing 2.25 version, we observed that, we’re able to save a >>> category without assigning any category options to it. We're able to save a >>> dataset without assigning any data elments to it. So is the case with most >>> of the metadata entities in maintenance app. This wasn't the behavior in >>> earlier versions of DHIS like 2.20, 2.21. Not sure, but probably, it's been >>> like this ever since maintenance app was introduced. Is this the >>> expected behavior? Or is it a bug? >>> >>> >>> >>> *Cheers,* >>> >>> Archana Chillala >>> Application Developer >>> Email [email protected] >>> Telephone +91 9100960533 <+91+9100960533> >>> [image: ThoughtWorks] >>> <http://www.thoughtworks.com/?utm_campaign=archana-chillala-signature&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thoughtworks-email-signature-generator> >>> >> >> >> -- >> Alex Tumwesigye >> >> Technical Advisor - DHIS2 (Consultant), >> Ministry of Health/AFENET | HISP Uganda >> Kampala >> Uganda >> +256 774149 775, + 256 759 800161 >> Skype ID: talexie >> >> IT Consultant (Servers, Networks and Security, Health Information Systems >> - DHIS2, Disease Outbreak & Surveillance Systems) & Solar Consultant >> >> >> "I don't want to be anything other than what I have been - one tree hill " >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~dhis2-devs >> Post to : [email protected] >> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~dhis2-devs >> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >> >> > > > -- > > ******************************************* > > Calle Hedberg > > 46D Alma Road, 7700 Rosebank, SOUTH AFRICA > > Tel/fax (home): +27-21-685-6472 > > Cell: +27-82-853-5352 > > Iridium SatPhone: +8816-315-19119 > > Email: [email protected] > > Skype: calle_hedberg > > ******************************************* > >
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