Peter,

Your not alone. I don't live far from you and despite having directional 
antennas (including a 5 element monobander on 20 meters) I too have a lack 
of over-the-pole Q's in my log compared to non-polar paths.

Generally speaking, I think part of the HF polar mystery is the shorter 
window of opportunity we have to work those paths compared to others during 
certain times of the year.

In winter, the W1-to-Japan path sees less solar radiation than in summer so 
the MUF peak in winter doesn't seem to last as long on the mid to upper HF 
bands. On the lower bands, it's more an absorption issue and that's 
controled mainly by sunlight.

The polar ionosphere is also more sensitive to magnetic storms, but there 
are many more quiet days than there are disturbed so this is probably not as 
big a factor as we think it is the majority of the time.

As far as the DX you find easier to work, a lot depends on the global 
distribution of the electron content in the ionosphere. The high 
concentration of electrons at low and mid latitiudes would make it easier to 
work the countries you mention on the mid to upper HF frequencies.

It's interesting to look at an MUF map to see how the MUF falls-off with 
electron content with a peak near the equator to a low at the poles. This 
tends to be true regardless of where we are in the 11 year cycle. You can 
see one of these maps at:   http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php

As others mentioned, propagation software can be very useful as a guide to 
determine the best times to work Japan. But keep in mind that the 
predictions are based on statistics and the ionosphere can vary by the 
minute. It does not react to small daily variations in the 10.7cm solar 
flux.

Best Regards...

Tony KT2Q


> Forgive a relative newbie if this is a dumb question:> > My QTH is East 
> Cost USA (about 50 miles north of Boston). I've been> working PSK31 (and 
> other digital modes) a few hours a day for about 4> months now. I haven't 
> once even HEARD a station in Asia or Oceania.>> I've had pretty good luck 
> into Europe, and I have QSOs as far south as> southern Africa (Namibia, 
> Zambia, etc). And of course in good throughout > the US, into the 
> caribbean, and down into central and (parts of) South > America.> > Am I 
> simply listening at the wrong time, or in the wrong place to find > 
> Asia/Oceania? Am I doing something else wrong? Or is my setup here> (TS-2K 
> barefoot and a dipole at 60 feet) simply too humble to allow my > signal 
> to make the 6700 mile journey from Boston to Tokyo?> > I'd appreciate a 
> little elmering from the list on this topic...> > TIA,> > de Peter K1PGV> 


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