Joel Spolsky gave a great description of how to use this idea
systematically, calling it Evidence Based Scheduling:
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html

No reason it wouldn't work as well for design as for development, though you
might need to adjust the method to account for different degrees of
mis-estimation on different types of design tasks.

This does require keeping very good records of estimated and actual times
for each task, so there's a significant startup cost to the method.  Better
schedules are probably worth the inconvenience.

Jennifer Berk

On Sat, Aug 2, 2008 at 9:47 AM, Marielle Winarto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Try to find your correction factor. Review some projects you did in
> the past. Would you have been able to complete them in time if you
> had had twice the time you estimated? Or 1.5x, or 3x? Or even higher?
>
> Next time, estimate your resources in the usual way (breaking down
> into chunks, etc), then apply your correction factor. I once read
> some numbers in a book on extreme programming: typical correction
> factors for programmers without practice in estimating their
> resources range from 2 to 5. If you keep track of the real time you
> spend, it quickly gets more accurate.
>
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