José,
I agree with Steve that multi-touch and/or sensor/camera-based input
is probably the paradigm shift in terms of input, but I can't see the
keyboard and mouse dying anytime soon. Rubbish as they, frankly, are,
so many people are used to using them.
Mobile devices, on the other hand, have always been awkward in terms
of keyboards and multitouch makes a lot of sense as it does for shared/
public interfaces and they're younger as interfaces. So they're not as
deeply embedded and they've been awkward in the past, which makes them
(or made them) a good target to re-define the UI and OS.
I'm really not sure that 'cloud computing' will make a big difference
to the UI of operating systems (except, perhaps, for the amount of
browser-driven apps). They're two different things - the cloud is what
goes on 'beyond the screen', if you like. You still need an operating
system of some sort and you still need a UI. All of those will
necessarily have incremental changes rather than huge leaps because
existing users need to be weaned over to new paradigms. The old adage
of don't re-invent conventions unless your absolutely sure your new
way is miles better than the old is going to hold true for a while.
For those with broadband, we've all been "always connected" for some
time, it's not something new. Are the major platforms getting "old"?
Maybe, but compared to what? They're all also improving, again
incrementally, what they do. One area that reflects "always on-ness"
is networking. It's way, way easier than it used to be to just join a
Wi-Fi network and get surfing.
What Apple did with the iPhone is to make getting connected (almost)
equally as easy on a mobile device, which all the other manufacturers
had made a teeth pulling exercise because they were too lazy to work
out how to make the whole process simpler. So, if I were to point you
to "something that has been made in this direction" I'd point you to
the iPhone - it's the best commercial example of what you might think
of as 'cloud computing' around at the moment.
The thing about the cloud is that it should pretty much remain
invisible. If I had a UI in which it was obvious that I was waiting
for network transactions and the UI reflected this, I suspect I'd get
frustrated. Google Gears is the response, by the way. It's all in the
background where possible.
I don't think expecting cloud computing to radically change the OS is
a line of thinking that makes sense really. It's like asking whether
car steering wheels change if you use diesel or petrol or a hybrid.
What goes on under the hood doesn't change the controls that much.
IMHO - I suspect this is one of those prediction responses that I'll
regret in 10 years when everything has changed ;-)
Best,
Andy
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Andy Polaine
Research | Writing | Strategy
Interaction Concept Design
Education Futures
Twitter: apolaine
Skype: apolaine
http://playpen.polaine.com
http://www.designersreviewofbooks.com
http://www.omnium.net.au
http://www.antirom.com
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