It's a spike up from 200 as recently as 48 hours ago.
200 CAD is about 192 USD, so it was more like 9 days ago if you rely on
a real market like Bitstamp and not something small and often depressed
(low prices) like cavirtex:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Now (or soon) would be a good time to empty the miner wallet and cash
out again.
Nope, I subscribe to the theory that no-one can really call the market.
(go short at 1broker.com if you believe there is a big correction coming)
We're sticking with our plan and selling on the third Saturday at 2pm.
This month I'll be hosting the market at the Kings Head to co-inside
with BSides. (downstairs open to the public right, bsides has upstairs?)
Now, I had said before that if someone could convince Ian, that we could
put some of the Skullspace mining profits under active management and
still keep some under my passive plan and see what performs better.
(active manager would be able to send me a SELL SELL SELL sms)
But, now it is sort of pointless. As Jeff promised, mining profitability
fell off very, very fast in the months since Ian lit this thing up. With
some a little bit of the downtime (caused by anti-malware on Ian's
server) and with mining profitability being where it is, we've only
accumulated 0.087 BTC since Oct 19:
https://blockchain.info/address/14eS3vDCn66Dy7N1PJXA7KTULPirfCJJeW
+ the two USB sticks WTCR gave us that I'm running have about 0.01 so
far that I've got sitting on the mining pool.
(0.01+0.087) * 240 = $23.28
So we don't exactly have a lot to lose by even the most catastrophic
market move.
Now that the gravey days are gone, I'd make a different suggestion to
Skullspace: stop selling and start holding these upcoming small amounts
long, long, long as an endowment for the Skullspace of the future. My
Bsides talk even offers some technology to help us do that. (including a
2 of 3 scheme).
Consider the opinion of one of the Paypal founders Peter Thiel (also an
angel investor in Facebook), who I don't think is a bitcoin evangelist
but a more sobre interested observer. He thinks Bitcoin has about a 20%
chance of becoming a success.
http://www.coindesk.com/figures-come-out-for-against-bitcoin/
Let's say success is a 100 fold price growth in valuation over 5 years,
which would be much slower then the reasonably steady trend in growth
you see from the past 4 years on this logarithmic chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
That would be a 2000% annual return. Multiply that by Peter Thiel's odds
of 20% and you get 400%.
With potential returns like that, there should come a point where we say
that whatever small amount is an amount we can afford to lose and ought
to risk holding.
Which isn't to say that we should commit the miner's fallacy and keep
mining when electricity becomes more expensive then current profits. At
that point, let's shut em down -- anyone who wants to see the endownment
fund grow can donate at that point. Could be awhile until that happens.
Mark
p.s.
Now, if you want to see bitcoin lovers get churchy about holding for the
longest time, check out some of the crowd reaction at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhGLLBCPwFo
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