For several years I've been asking a subset of this question, "Who are
end-user programmers?"  (I maintain a Web page on the subject at,
http://www.cs.uml.edu/~hgoodell/EndUser/ ; I have built tools with which
end users completely automated complex semiconductor process equipment.)

I found the discussion here of the Eisenstadt-Bonar bet last Spring
thought-provoking.  As with other talents like management or writing,
some people in every group of workers have a natural inclination towards
programming.  Circumstances including usable programming tools can
enlarge the fraction of people who successfully program.  Whether they
switch and become professional programmers, or develop into end-user
programming "gurus" or "gardeners" in their current job depends on many
factors, like organizational attitudes and relative pay.

One aspect of this discussion of the changes in the programming
profession since 1971 especially interests me:
it is my contention that in many areas such as Web and GUI programming,
business applications, and network administration/programming, the
attitudes and skill sets of professionals and end-users are becoming
blended.  I've even coined a phrase, "blended-user programmers."  They
do real programming by most of your definitions, but in their
exploratory learning style and taking things at interface value in
sophisticated tools, they share many characteristics of end users.  They
may even have a large non-programming element of their job, like graphic
design or setting up people's computers.  I think this combination is a
new piece of the puzzle:  a full understanding of the activity of
programming has to include all 3 types of professionals.

Take care!

Howie Goodell
-- 
************************************************************************
  Howie Goodell         Senior Software Engineer   HCI Research Group
  28 Lucille Avenue     Micrion Corporation        Computer Science Dept
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  End-User Programming:  http://www.cs.uml.edu/~hgoodell/EndUser

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