Wow, Sterling -- I didn't mean to piss you off like that!
Do you remember that ACFUG meeting after the merger was announced, where you were on the panel and everyone was trying to figure out "what next" with ColdFusion? I thought the arguments you were making about the importance of fringe things like CF's gateways and how the growth in cellular technology was going to make ColdFusion yada yada yada was, let's say, "not on point." It simply doesn't matter.
It's like a bunch of little ants scurrying around in a lab beaker discussing the reasons why that big man in the lab coat is going to feed them soon, because it's only logical and yada yada yada. But they have no clue that the guy is there to test the effects of heat on ants. They can see him through the glass and they think they know what's important to him and how it will affect his actions, but they just don't realize that nothing they're thinking or doing or saying has any relevance to what that guy is going to have to do in order to get graded on his science project, which is the only thing of any real relevance because that guy is the one with the power to bring things into alignment with what the real Powers That Be demand of him.
And past actions have little to do with future actions. Do you really think that stubborness to continue supporting stagnant products like LiveCycle will stand in the face of shareholder demands for profitability?
Decisions to "continue or can" products and even entire product lines are often made with what some might take as offhandedness by the leaders of publicly traded companies, but it's really just a realization of what finally needs to be done. You say that "Adobe does not kill products," and that may be true right now, but shareholder pressure has a way of changing such decisions.
And actually, most of our peers agree with us about Microsoft technologies beating Adobe technologies hands down. I usually don't make absolute statements, but if I were to make one it would probably be that Flex will never ever ever in any way shape or form ever have a significant share of the web. And I'd even say that the current trend of companies migrating from ColdFusion to .NET will continue, which is another reason for my guess that Adobe will take the open source route with ColdFusion.
These are just guesses, but I believe that my reasoning is more rooted in reality than yours.
And I'll be happy to take you up on your bet. If by Christmas 2009 Adobe hasn't open sourced, outsourced, or sold ColdFusion (all of these courses are "washing their hands"), then I buy.
The last time we had dinner together was 14 years ago at Nakato, and Lisa still hasn't gotten over the octopus tentacles draped over the side of her bowl, so this time I pick, regardless! :)
Adam Phillip Churvis
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