------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar.
Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/jyXolB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
The Basics
Why we're not having enough babies
advertisement
Parents pay a hefty penalty for raising the next
generation -- and that has serious consequences.
A declining world population threatens future
economic prosperity.
By Scott Burns
"We're not facing a nuclear war or a population
bomb; we're facing a depopulation bomb. This
isn't just Europe. It's the entire world."
That was one of the first things Phillip Longman
said when I called to talk about his book, "The
Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten
World Prosperity (And What to Do About It)." I
called him because he is one of the few economic
writers whose vision includes families as
something more than consuming units. He clearly
recognizes that families are powerful economic
institutions in their own right. Without families
-- and all they do to create and prepare the next
generation -- our market economy and
public-service economy would collapse.
If the idea of falling population strikes you as
odd, you need to update your picture of the world
and the problems it faces. Less than 50 years ago
(1957, the year Lyle Lovett was born, to be
precise), the U.S. birthrate hit a record and
began to decline. From 3.7 births per woman --
well over the 2.1 required to maintain a level
population -- our birthrate has been falling ever
since. It is now hovering just below replacement
rate.
In Europe, birth rates are even lower. As a
consequence, the population of Europe will have
fallen to what it was in 1950 by 2050. Longman
says this is happening all around the world --
women are having fewer children. It's happening
in Brazil; it's happening in China, India and
Japan. It's even happening in the Middle East.
Wherever there is rapid urbanization, education
for women and visions of urban affluence,
birthrates are falling.
No reward for caregivers
"One of the reasons is that human beings have
created an environment that is negative for
childbirth. There is a demand for human capital,
but there is almost no reward for it. So people
have fewer children," Longman said.
"On a farm you can have children and they will be
useful from age 5. But in an urban environment,
children are liabilities. And 50% of all the
people in the world live in urban environments.
"People who are involved in raising the next
generation are typically paid far less than they
would make doing something else. You can earn
more, for instance, teaching real estate than
(teaching school).
"Why does this happen? Think about it like this.
When you go to a casino, you keep all the
winnings. But when you have a child, you have to
share the benefits of your investment with the
entire society.
"So we have a 'free rider' problem. You don't
need to have children to provide for your old age
-- but the pension systems need them." (He was
referring to the coming Social Security crunch as
the number of retired people rises faster than
the number of workers.)
Procreation reprioritized
I asked if the problem was that people were more
self-centered.
"This isn't about selfishness. Surveys show women
haven't had as many children as they wanted to
have. The average woman in Europe, for instance,
wanted to have 2.1 children -- but only had 1.3.
In the United States, the average woman wanted
2.3 children (enough for population growth) but
only had 2.02," Longman said.
"People, particularly in Europe, aren't producing
as many children as they would like to have. The
economy is asking them to do more and more in
their best reproductive years. They're expected
to get educated, get a job, find a nice
neighborhood, etc. By the time they do that,
they've missed their best years for reproduction.
"Basically, our societies have put a tax on
nurture. Parents create value, but they get
little of it."
The nurture tax
I asked how the nurture tax could be measured.
"Parents are effectively taxed in several ways.
They pay the same Social Security taxes as
others. But at the same time, they produce the
children that will secure the future of Social
Security.
"And children are an enormous investment. The
government estimates it's about $200,000 in
direct expenses," Longman said. (Find tips on how
to cope with the costs of raising children here.)
"There's also an enormous opportunity cost -- the
forgone wages. Even if the wife doesn't stay home
full time, the part-time work is an opportunity
cost."
"The Empty Cradle" captures a lost truth: There's
more to life than investments. And there's more
to investments than money.
__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
New and Improved Yahoo! Mail - 100MB free storage!
http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/E-MAIL_TRIVIA/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
