----- Original Message -----=20 From: Environmental Science Seminar Series<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> =
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>=20 Sent: Thursday, July 06, 2006 12:19 PM Subject: Upcoming AMS Seminar -- Impact of Climate Change on Arctic = Ecosystems: A Snapshot of Mammals and Forests, July 14, 2006 American Meteorological Society's Environmental Science Seminar Series Impact of Climate Change on Arctic Ecosystems: A Snapshot of Mammals and Forests Public Invited *Please provide us with a business card if you would like to be on our = future mailing list* Friday, July 14, 2006, 11:00 am - 1:00 pm Location: Russell Senate Office Building, Room 428a Washington, DC Buffet Reception Following Moderator Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Fellow, American Meteorological Society=20 Speakers Dr. Susan Kutz, Associate Professor of Wildlife and Ecosystem Health, = Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary, Alberta Canada Dr. Glenn Patrick Juday, Professor of Forest Ecology and Director of the = Tree-Ring Laboratory, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural = Sciences, University of Alaska, Fairbanks AK Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, Research Wildlife Biologist, United States = Geological Survey at the Alaska Science Center, Anchorage AK The Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Land Mammals: The Role of = Parasites and Hosts Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and = driving the emergence of disease in people, domestic animals, and = wildlife. At northern latitudes, where climate change is occurring most = rapidly, the implications may be severe. Northern species, including = parasites and their vectors, have evolved under severe environmental = constraints, and a warmer, wetter climate may release them from these = constraints with profound implications. For example, the transmission = cycle of an important lung nematode, Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis, = in muskoxen has shifted from a predominantly two-year to a one-year = cycle over the last 30 years. It is anticipated that this will lead to = increased occurrence of lungworm in muskoxen and an expanded geographic = range of the parasite. Increased levels of infection and expansion of the geographic range of = parasites in the Arctic is a concern because many parasites, including = the muskox lungworm, the sheep muscle worm, the various stomach worms of = ungulates, and other pathogens, have very subtle, yet profound impacts = on the survival and reproductive success of their hosts.. Healthy and = sustainable wildlife populations are tremendously important for the = maintenance of the cultural, economic, and physical well-being of Arctic = and Subarctic peoples and for the integrity of northern ecosystems. = Small changes in the Arctic climate may have a profound influence on the = occurrence and patterns of infectious diseases in northern wildlife = species, and ultimately the health of northern peoples and ecosystems. = Further studies defining the diversity and distribution of northern = pathogens, the patterns of transmission, and the impacts on wildlife and = people are essential to prepare for the ecosystem level impacts of = climate change at northern latitudes. Additionally, the Arctic can serve = as the 'canary in the coalmine' where detecting, understanding, and = predicting the responses of high latitude host-parasite systems can = provide considerable insight into implications of warming on a global = scale. Climate Change Has Strongly Affected the Forests of Alaska The climate of Alaska has warmed in specific ways that have strongly = affected the growth and health of its forests. Over the past century in = central Alaska the growing season is 50% to 100% longer, daily low = temperatures are nearly 3 degrees C warmer during the growing season = while daily highs are little changed, and winters are 5 to 7 degrees C = warmer. The total area burned in wildland fires is directly related to = total number and consecutive duration of warmest (27 degrees C) summer = days at Fairbanks. The summer of 2004 at Fairbanks recorded the highest = mean temperature in the 101-year weather record, resulting in 6.7 = million acres burned, the greatest in the 56-year fire record. Summer = 2005 was also hot and dry, resulting in 4.6 million acres burned. In the = northeast quadrant of Alaska the 2-year total burned area represents = about one third of all forest land. The total area burned in Alaska and = adjacent Yukon Territory in 2 years was about 16 million acres, = equivalent to the area of Ireland. Temperature directly controls the year-to-year change in tree growth on = perhaps the majority of sites in Alaska. At treeline in the Alaska Range = and Brooks Range Mountains, about 40% of white spruce grow best when the = previous July temperature is low and least when July temperature is = high. About 38% of treeline white spruce in grow best when March or = April mean temperatures are highest, specifically above freezing. In = central Alaska white spruce on commercially productive sites grew at = about half the rate during the warmth of the past 3 decades compared to = the cooler early and middle 20th century. Paper birch and black spruce = growth on many sites in central Alaska is also least in warm years, = although a few populations experience increased growth in warm years. = Growth of Alaska trees that are sensitive to climate can now be = calibrated to temperature, and forecast for given temperature scenarios. = Temperature scenarios used in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, = should they actually occur, would result in widespread death of existing = tree populations. Alaska's most valuable timber species, Alaska yellow = cedar, has experienced widespread death of mature trees across about = 750K acres during the past century. New results strongly implicate = premature loss of freeze tolerance from warmer winters as the cause of = yellow cedar decline. Spruce bark beetles have killed most mature white = spruce on 4.5 million acres in south central Alaska, the largest single = tree-killing insect outbreak in U.S. history. Warm winters and warm = summers promote bark beetle outbreaks, and "super" outbreak weather = conditions have prevailed in recent years. Spruce budworm requires early = summer warmth to reproduce or reach outbreak levels and was generally = absent in central Alaska until 1990. Spruce budworm populations reached = damaging outbreak levels in 2006 on the most productive commercial = forest sites. Impact of Arctic Warming on Polar Bear Populations Polar bears are tied to the sea ice for nearly all of their life cycle = functions. Most important of these is foraging, or access to food. = Polar bears almost exclusively eat seals, and they are equally as = dependent upon the sea for their nutrition as are seals, whales, and = other aquatic mammals. Polar bears are not aquatic, however, and their = only access to the seals, upon which they depend, is from the surface of = the sea ice. Over the past 25 years, the summer sea ice melt period has = lengthened, and summer sea ice cover has declined by over half a million = square miles. In winter, although sea ice extent has not changed as = greatly, there have been dramatic reductions in the amount of old ice, = predominantly in the western Arctic. This loss of stable old ice has = set up additional losses of sea ice cover each summer because the = thinner younger ice is more easily melted during the recent warmer = summers.=20 Because of their dependence upon the sea ice for food, these changes can = directly affect the carrying capacity of the Arctic for polar bears. = Our studies have now documented numerical responses to these changes in = sea ice. In Western Hudson Bay near the southern extent of the range of = polar bears, a longer ice-free season has resulted in reduced survival = of young and old polar bears and a chronic population decline over the = past 20 years. Recent observations in Alaska are consistent with a = population under stress, and recently collected data suggest lower = numbers of bears than were previously estimated. Ongoing studies are = designed to gain understanding of movement patterns of polar bears in = response to changing ice conditions and of associated population = responses. If we know how polar bears respond, functionally and = numerically, to ice quantity and quality, we will likely be able to = predict how forecasted changes in the ice may affect future polar bear = populations. This will give managers the best chance of adapting = strategies to assure long term polar bear survival in a changing ice = environment.=20 Biographies Dr. Susan Kutz is an Associate Professor of Wildlife and Ecosystem = Health at the newly established Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, = University of Calgary, Canada. Dr. Kutz's research focuses on = understanding the biodiversity, impacts, and response to climate change = of pathogens in Arctic and Subarctic wildlife and the pathogen-related = interactions between people and wildlife and wildlife and domestic = animals. Related to this research, she is developing community-based = programs for long term monitoring and early detection of changes in the = health of remote wildlife populations. She is co-founder of a successful = program for outreach, education, and community-based monitoring of = wildlife health in the Northwest Territories = (http://wildlife1.usask.ca/Sahtu/<http://wildlife1.usask.ca/Sahtu/>). Dr. Kutz has recently been awarded a three-year grant from Alberta = Ingenuity for her research "Impacts of climate change on the = biodiversity, epidemiology, and impacts of parasites in caribou" and = another three year grant NSERC International Polar Year to investigate = "Resilience of Caribou and Reindeer Populations: Validation and = Application of the Filter Paper Technique to Assess Exposure to = Pathogens during International Polar Year(s)". Dr. Kutz has published = 22 peer reviewed journal articles, 2 book chapters, delivered over 15 = invited papers and 50 additional presentations at national and = international meetings on her research on Arctic and Subarctic wildlife = parasites and diseases. She has also produced several technical reports = and provided numerous educational seminars and workshops on the health = of Arctic and Subarctic wildlife. Dr. Glenn Patrick Juday is Professor of Forest Ecology and Director of = the Tree-Ring Laboratory in the School of Natural Resources and = Agricultural Sciences at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, where he = has worked since 1981. He was formerly Research Ecologist with the USDA = Forest Service 1978-1981. He received his B.S. summa cum laude, in 1972 = in Forest Management from Purdue University, and his Ph.D. in 1976, in = Plant Ecology from Oregon State University. He completed a Rockefeller = Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship in Environmental Affairs, 1976-1977 = serving as Executive Chair of the Oregon Natural Area Preserves Advisory = Commission. He spent a sabbatical in the headquarters of The Nature = Conservancy in Arlington Virginia in 1988. Dr Juday is currently a Co-Principal Investigator in the NSF-supported = Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in central Alaska. His = research specialties include climate change, tree-ring studies, = biodiversity and forest management, and forest development following = fire. He is the Lead author of the chapter on Forests and Agriculture of = the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, and a contributing author to the = chapter on Biodiversity Conservation. Dr. Juday has served as science = advisor for several television programs on climate warming, including = the PBS series Scientific American Frontiers. His research results were = discussed in 2 issues of National Geographic magazine in 2004. He has = also briefed and led trips for several member of Congress. Dr. Juday was = recognized for outstanding accomplishments as Chairman of Forest Ecology = Working Group of the Society of American Foresters in 2000. He is the = author of over 30 scientific peer-reviewed journal articles and book = chapters including Nature, Climatic Change, Global Change Biology, = Forest Ecology and Management and Canadian Journal of Forest Research. = He has book chapters published by Oxford University Press, Cambridge = University Press, and Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. He is = currently contributing to the 4th Global Environment Outlook (GEO 4), = chapters on Polar Regions. Dr. Steven C. Amstrup is a Research Wildlife Biologist with the United = States Geological Survey at the Alaska Science Center, Anchorage AK. He = holds a B.S. in Forestry from the University of Washington (1972), a = M.S. in Wildlife Management from the University of Idaho (1975), and a = Ph.D. in Wildlife Management from the University of Alaska Fairbanks = (1995). He has been conducting research on all aspects of polar bear = ecology in the Beaufort Sea for 25 years. His research interests = include distribution and movement patterns as well as population = dynamics of wildlife, and how information on those topics can be used to = assure wise stewardship. He is particularly interested in how science = can help to reconcile the ever enlarging human footprint on our = environment with the needs of other species for that same environment. = Prior work experiences include studies of black bears in central Idaho, = and pronghorns and grouse in Wyoming. On their honeymoon in New = Zealand, Steven and his wife Virginia helped in a tagging study of = little blue penguins. That experience gave Steve the honour of being = one of the very few people ever to have been bitten by both polar bears = and penguins. Steven has authored or coauthored over 50 peer reviewed = articles on movements, distribution and population dynamics of large = mammals, and is the senior editor of a recent text on population = estimation methods. -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ------- =20 This seminar series is open to the public and does not require a = reservation. Please feel free to forward this notice The Next Seminar is tentatively scheduled for late August or mid = September, 2006.=20 Topic: Drought Issues in the Western US Please see our web site for seminar summaries, presentations and future = events: = http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy<http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy> =20 For more information please contact: Anthony D. Socci, Ph.D. Or Jan Wilkerson = =20 Tel. (202) 737-9006, ext. 412 Tel. (202) 737-9006, = ext. 436 E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> = E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
