Joseph and all other Honorable askers of simultaneously and ironically leading and essential questions:
Among the many consequences of Peak Oil and the petering out of the cheap stuff, only oil barons and sheiks and The Authorities will be able to afford to poke holes in the ozone layer (has OL been forgotten too?), with gold-toileted luxury jets, and we, the serfs, our unhallowed constitutions hollowed out, will be pulling carts down the remnants of "freeways," trying to evade "Mad Max" and his cronies--ad nauseam, but likely not ad infinitum. Ultimately, the system will fluctuate less and less, until a dynamic equilibrium is reached that, if it includes Homo s. at all, it will be a minor species. Ultimately, the baronial class, having reached a consumption peak through focus on psychotic (considered "normal" by enough people to be negated) demands rather than needs, will be reduced or eliminated, as there will be no more basis for excess, the consumers upon which it depended to consume its resources to enable its mega-luxury-consumption, having been reduced to a depauperate state, or at best, subsistence--if they are lucky! As Guy McPherson (and Rose Tyson) have said, Nature bats last! http://blog.ltc.arizona.edu/naturebatslast/2007/08/the_end_of_civilization_and_th.html But then, none of us should be too sure of ourselves. I have been wrong in my attempts to interpret my puny observations in terms of the future before, and far, far better people than I have been unable to do so with a simpler system like global climate. So, it's a gut feeling, not an equation. But if we wait for the Savior Equation to come to science, will the pseudo-system of anthropocentrism run out of consumables before that Day of Salvation? WT "Nature has shrugged off countless species in the history of the earth, and she will shrug off Homo sapiens with no more concern than any of the rest. And the sooner she does so, the sooner the earth can get back to normal." --Louis B. Ziegler At 09:36 AM 10/24/2007, joseph gathman wrote: >Speaking of denial, why does Global Warming always >generate so much response on this list, while Peak Oil >doesn't? To my mind, they are both profoundly >important, both are "ecological" in some way (PO may >be more so), and both are happening now. > >Maybe ecologists just don't know about PO, or haven't >considered what it really means (it's likely to be a >paradigm shift in human history with not-yet-explored >ramifications for the planet in general). Certainly >there has been MUCH more buzz (and funding) about GW, >while PO is under the radar. Is ecology really so >trend-driven that we can't see a huge issue in front >of our noses? > >Joe > > > > (While this is no place to elaborate, I have to at > > least note that, with= > > a >90% fossil-fueled economy, and ceteris paribus, > > economic growth simp= > > ly =3D global warming. And also that, with economic > > growth - increasing= > > production and consumption of goods and services in > > the aggregate - pri= > > oritized in the domestic policy arena, dealing with > > climate change means= > > not conservation and frugality but rather wholesale > > onlining of nuclear= > > , tar sands, mountaintop removing, etc., because, as > > Woolsey pointed out= > > , renewables such as solar and wind won=92t come > > anywhere near the level= > > s our currently fossil-fueled economy needs.) > > = > > > > So perhaps we could view "denial science" as lying > > on a spectrum, where = > > endpoints might be defined either in terms of > > hardness/softness of scien= > > ce (e.g., physics hard, climate change science > > medium, ecological econom= > > ics softish), or else in terms of political economy > > (e.g., from little t= > > o big money at stake). Denial would tend to be > > motivated pursuant to pr= > > incipals of political economy, and gotten away with > > in proportion to the= > > softness (or alternatively, complexity) of the > > science. > > = > > > > = > > > > Brian Czech, Visiting Assistant Professor = > > > > Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University > > Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences > > National Capital Region, Northern Virginia Center > > 7054 Haycock Road, Room 411 > > Falls Church, VA 22043 =
