I've posted too much on this topic, but can't resist responding to one
paragraph of Wirt's posting. One approach to looking at science is to ask
whether the general statements we make apply to all sciences. My favourite
counter-example to almost all assertions about prediction, controlled
experiments, replication, etc. is the oldest science, astronomy. Geology and
oceanography will also serve.
Astronomers do not make predictions, and in fact most of their data are
millions of years old (excluding planetary science of course). Geologists
also do not make predictions, other than where to find oil and other
valuables. Much oceanography deals with analysis and explanation, and so far
as prediction goes, would you buy a used car from a fisheries oceanographer
who told you that it would start tomorrow morning?
Bill Silvert
PS - Wirt, where can I get one of those large salaries?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Wirt Atmar" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, February 21, 2008 9:58 PM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Anderson's new book,
Nonetheless, prediction is still our only measure of how well we
understand the
world around us, and no one has ever said that making these predictions
was
supposed to be easy. If it were, none of us would be getting the large
salaries
we're being paid.
