There is a sizable literature devoted to trying to understand and predict masting as a function of carb (and other e.g., fats) storage in trees and plants in general. If there is interest in delving into this literature, see citations below. According to this literature, there are many possible events that could easily wreck a crop of seeds. If it happens at the time of flower production, then the stored resources that were available for seed (fruit) production would be still available and could be added to any new resources from the year in which no seeds were made. This could then create a very large mast year in the year or years following the low year(s). If, for example, the event was a late spring frost that wrecked the flowers, and this continued to happen for a couple years, then we should expect a very large year or two or more to follow.
One key point of interest is that it may be very difficult to estimate these stored resources. Rees et al. (2002) attempt to address this by taking the deviation from long term average seed production as the estimate of stored resources. Isagi, Y. et al. 1997. How Does Masting Happen and Synchronize? Journal of Theoretical Biology 187 (2):231-239. Satake, A., and Y. Iwasa. 2002. The synchronized and intermittent reproduction of forest trees is mediated by the Moran effect, only in association with pollen coupling. Journal of Ecology 90 (5):830-838. Rees, M., D. Kelly, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2002. Snow tussocks, chaos, and the evolution of mast seeding. The American Naturalist 160 (1):44-59. Eliot -- --------- Eliot McIntire, Ph.D. Canada Research Chair, Conservation Biology Center for Forest Research, Laval University, 2405 rue de la Terrasse, Québec, Québec, Canada G1V 0A6
