Ecolog and Heckscher:
Yes, it is a shame that baseline data of all kinds, so essential to any
higher-order understanding of ecological processes, is shunned by "armchair"
(and "office-chair) ecologists for any number of "reasons," but there is a
yet more important baseline that goes yet more completely ignored. In order
to truly understand the relationship of organisms to their habitats and
their capacity to shift with habitat changes, it is essential to know the
requirements for each organism and the habitat/environmental factors which
limit it at various stages of its life-cycle. Try to get a grant for that!
WT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Christopher Heckscher" <checksc...@desu.edu>
To: <ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU>
Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 7:00 AM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate
Extinctions
This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple
taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote
regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the
northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species'
distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately
predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be
able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet
funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline
data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair
ecologists with little or no field experience as not "real" science. In
fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or
inventory work.
Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor, Environmental Science & Ecology
Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science
Center
Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources
Delaware State University
1200 N. DuPont Highway
Dover, DE 19901
________________________________________
From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news
[ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen Sa;lzberg
[asalzb...@herpdigest.org]
Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 9:09 AM
To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU
Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate
Extinctions
Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
ScienceDaily (Jan. 3, 2012) — Predictions of the loss of animal and plant
diversity around the world
are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that
because these
climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they
could grossly
underestimate future extinctions.
See Also:
"We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate
change," says ecologist
Mark Urban, the study's lead author. "But in real life, animals move around,
they compete, they
parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our
predictions don't include these
important interactions."
Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in
response to climate
change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology
at the University of
Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants
that can't take the
heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler.
But not all species can disperse fast enough to get to these more suitable
places before they die
off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may
be out-competed by the
species that are already there -- or the ones that got there first.
With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of
Washington, Urban
created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of
migration and the
different intensities of competition seen in ecological communities. The
goal was to predict just
how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to
completely new habitats.
Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate
change will have a
competitive advantage over those that don't.
Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty
dispersing are likely to
go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals
are more likely to be
overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats.
"When a species has a small range, it's more likely to be out-competed by
others," Urban says. "It's
not about how fast you can move, but how fast you move relative to your
competitors."
Urban likens this scenario to a train traveling up a mountain on a track. If
each boxcar --
representing a species -- travels at the same speed, they will likely all
reach the top eventually. But
in reality, each car can move at a different speed, creating a collision
course.
"There's always a car in front of you and a car behind," explains Urban.
"When you introduce the
ability to move at different speeds, they're constantly bumping into one
another, even running
each other over. It's a recipe for disaster."
Importantly, the authors speculate that current predictions of biodiversity
loss under climate
change -- many of which are used by conservation organizations and
governments -- could be
vastly underestimating species extinctions.
Tropical communities, for example, which often have many species living in
small areas, could be
among the hardest hit by climate change. Urban says this is a first step
toward making climate
change predictions of biodiversity more sophisticated.
"This is a first step -- to include in our models things that we know are
true, like competition and
dispersal," says Urban. "Knowing these things, can we predict which species
might be most at
risk?"
Urban's paper was published in the Jan. 4 online edition of the Proceedings
of the Royal Society B:
Biological Sciences. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation.
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