Ecolog:
"Shifting our emphasis in modeling from point estimates to sets or ranges as
is done in risk assessment would go a long way to answering many
questions." --Malcolm McCallum
That's considered by a lot of folks to be, well, heresy. But I agree with
Malcolm. That does not mean that I would grant him a doctorate in Heresy,
though. --WT
Sometimes its not the exact number that matters, its the trend. --Malcolm
McCallum
Abskerloutely! (Well, maybe not, but it might be closer than farther from
the truth.) --WT
Using models in this way can reveal a lot about trends and what is possible
and what is not possible. --Malcolm McCallum
Yes, but I need to learn more about the possible/not possible part. --WT
If we can eliminate what is possible at the onset, we can follow up with
point estimating models for our specific circumstance which interests
s. --Malcolm McCallum
Ditto here. I may need an example, like a theoretical foundation and a
specific example to clear my fog . . . --WT
Jumping right to point estimates may be a fools game though, because your
answer may actually be an impossible scenario." --Malcolm McCallum
I might (almost) rest my case here . . . --WT
WT
----- Original Message -----
From: "malcolm McCallum" <[email protected]>
To: "Wayne Tyson" <[email protected]>
Cc: <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, November 18, 2012 6:07 AM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Ecology and Equations Re: [ECOLOG-L] New blog post-
the use of complex equations decreases the chance that a paper will be cited
Ecology is not reduced to mathematics.
It is described using mathematics.
That is the nature of models.
The fact that it is complex does not mean their is no mathematical basis.
It just means that the mathematics are very complex.
Further, dissecting the mathematical complexities in extereme detail
may have few applications.
This is why generalized models are used instead of very specific ones.
A model that works using point estimates (a single number) is either
right or wrong.
A model that uses sets as predictors or results or both can be
accurate, inaccurate, precise or imprecise.
Shifting our emphasis in modeling from point estimates to sets or
ranges as is done in risk assessment
would go a long way to answering many questions. Sometimes its not
the exact number that matters, its the trend. Using models in this
way can reveal a lot about trends and what is possible and what is not
possible. If we can eliminate what is possible at the onset, we can
follow up with point estimating models for our specific circumstance
which interests us. Jumping right to point estimates may be a fools
game though, because your answer may actually be an impossible
scenario.
Unfortunately, almost everythign we do is try to find THE NUMBER,
instead of THE BALLPARK ESTIMATE.
There is an old saying "Close enough for government work!" Well, it
turns out that close is more often fine than not. For example, does
it really matter if a physician tells you that you have a week to 10
days to live, or if he tells you you have 8.23 days to live? The
outcome is pretty much the same isn't it? Its the same way with
mathematical modeling of ecological systems and environmental
problems.
Malcolm
On Sat, Nov 17, 2012 at 11:47 PM, Wayne Tyson <[email protected]> wrote:
Ecolog:
Leonard's comments may well get him burned at the stake, but an honest
discussion of his points would well-advised.
I suggest that ecology as a phenomenon is far too complex to be reduced to
mathematics, but a certain amount of counting, even arithmetic, and, where
truly applicable, complex mathematics, when, and only when, it is actually
relevant to reality. Numbers have limitations, just like general
observations do. Still, I do not suggest throwing the mathematics baby out
with the bathwater, only when mathematics are nothing more than bathwater,
to put it politely. As the little book "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics"
says . . .
I strongly suspect (but have no statistical analysis to "prove"), that
there
is an unfortunate trend toward numerical bs, largely because ecology has
long been derided by the "harder sciences," resulting in a fit of
overcompensation--"if it takes mathematics to get 'respect,' we'll give
'em
mathematics." Professors and committees expect complex equations, even
algorithms from students if the student expects to "get any respect,"
graduate, or receive a degree.
Is it not ironic that a perceived need for credibility might translate
into
actions that undermine, nay, ultimately trash that credibility.
How much about ecology can be understood without mathematics, and then,
how
complex need that mathematics be to explain and understand what is going
on
in the endlessly-changing processes of life interactions? What do we know?
What don't we know? How do we tell the difference? Is mathematics up to
the
job? Does some kind of metamathematics remain to be discovered or
developed?
WT
PS:
I have suggested that fuzzy logic/mathematics might be useful tools for
examining complex relationships like those found in ecology (
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss2/art5/ ), but any logic or
device
that brings better understanding of ecosystem processes might prove
adequate. Ecosystem functions may be infinitely more complex than, say,
weather, and nobody has more than a fuzzy handle on that.
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex... It takes
a
touch of genius - and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction."
--Albert Einstein
----- Original Message ----- From: "Neahga Leonard"
<[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, November 16, 2012 8:51 AM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] New blog post- the use of complex equations
decreases the chance that a paper will be cited
Interesting. That article validates a feeling I've had for a long while.
Communication both amongst scientists and between scientists and the rest
of the population is an important issue that needs to be addressed. As
scientists our primary purpose is to explain to others what we learn about
our surroundings. Learning without passing the information on doesn't (in
my opinion) accomplish much and does not add to the repository of
knowledge
we all draw upon to move to the next step in learning.
Within the sciences there seems to be a trend, one that begins in school
and is perpetuated in the professional world, of demonstrating one's
intelligence by being almost incomprehensibly complex. This does few
people any good as it can drive even those very interested in what your
topic is away from the subject.
Part of this may be due to the genuine complexity of the subjects we look
at and our desire to capture as much of that intricacy as we can. This is
an admirable goal, but we must keep in mind that most other people have
not
looked into our particular subject deeply enough to appreciate the fulness
of what we see and that they may not have the time to do so.
Also, we tend to forget that our most important audience is not other
scientists, but the population at large. Many non-scientists are
extremely
curious about the knowledge scientists have to offer, but, even if those
people can access the information (raising the issue of the criminal
expense of scientific papers and journals), what we find is usually not
presented in a way that anyone other than a fellow specialist can
understand it.
Einstein said, “If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it
well enough”. Maybe we as a profession should meditate upon this. Our
goal, after all, is to explain to others.
Neahga Leonard
On Fri, Nov 16, 2012 at 5:47 AM, David Shiffman
<[email protected]>wrote:
Hello, all!
I wanted to let you know about a new blog post I've written that may be
of
interest.
A recent PNAS paper showed that papers including a high density of
complex
equations are less likely to be cited than papers with fewer equations.
Their conclusion was that many scientists appear to be unfamiliar with
complex mathematics. This paper prompted 4 replies in the latest issue of
PNAS.
I've summarized all the sides in a blog post, and invited the authors of
each of the papers and replies to participate in a discussion with my
blog's readers. Given that many of you use complex mathematics in your
research, I thought that this might interest you.
Please feel free to join the discussion on the blog either by sharing
your
opinion or by responding to my readers' questions.
The post can be found here:
http://www.southernfriedscience.com/?p=13943
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Sincerely,
--
*David Shiffman*
*Ph.D. Student, Research Assistant,*
Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy
<http://www.cesp.miami.edu/>
R.J. Dunlap Marine Conservation Program <http://rjd.miami.edu/>
[image: RJD]
*e: *[email protected] | *p: *412.915.2309
*a: *4600 Rickenbacker Cswy, Miami, Florida, 33149
*t: *@WhySharksMatter <http://twitter.com/#!/WhySharksMatter> | *b:
*Southern
Fried Science Blog <http://www.southernfriedscience.com/>
--
Neahga Leonard
*There is not just a whole world to explore, there is a whole universe to
explore, perhaps more than one.*
http://writingfornature.wordpress.com/
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--
Malcolm L. McCallum
Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry
School of Biological Sciences
University of Missouri at Kansas City
Managing Editor,
Herpetological Conservation and Biology
"Peer pressure is designed to contain anyone with a sense of drive" -
Allan Nation
1880's: "There's lots of good fish in the sea" W.S. Gilbert
1990's: Many fish stocks depleted due to overfishing, habitat loss,
and pollution.
2000: Marine reserves, ecosystem restoration, and pollution reduction
MAY help restore populations.
2022: Soylent Green is People!
The Seven Blunders of the World (Mohandas Gandhi)
Wealth w/o work
Pleasure w/o conscience
Knowledge w/o character
Commerce w/o morality
Science w/o humanity
Worship w/o sacrifice
Politics w/o principle
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