"For the first time, maps and summaries of
historical and projected temperature and
precipitation changes for the 21st century for
the continental U.S. are accessible at a
county-by-county level on a
<http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nex-dcp30.asp>website
developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in
collaboration with the College of Earth, Oceanic
and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
The maps and summaries are based on NASA
downscaling of the 33 climate models used in the
5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project and the
current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Assessment Report. The resulting
<https://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/portal_home/published/NEX.html>NASA
dataset is on an 800-meter grid with national coverage.
The USGS leveraged this massive dataset and
distilled the information into easily understood
maps, 3-page summaries and spreadsheet compatible
data files for each state and county in the
United States. A similar implementation for the
USGS nested hydrologic units will be available in the next month."
For the full press release, see:
<http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3745#.Uqiw9vRDvdM>http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3745#.Uqiw9vRDvdM
For the model predictions, see:
http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nex-dcp30.asp
(or I created a shorter URL: on.doi.gov/1fkrgQL)
I think this is a great opportunity to convey
climate-change predictions at a community level
to non-scientists. For example, I've drafted a
letter (below) to send to local newspapers near
my study site at the Rocky Mountain Biological
Laboratory, in Gunnison county, Colorado. (You
could cite such a letter as a broader impact of
your research on your next NSF proposal.)
David Inouye
The US Geological Survey and Oregon State
University have announced a Website with
county-level predictions for projected
temperature and precipitation changes for the
21st century for the continental USA. These
predictions come from a consensus of 33 different
climate models, use four greenhouse gas emissions
scenarios, and produce data on an 800-meter grid.
Each of the climate projections includes monthly
averaged maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, and precipitation for the periods
from 1950 through 2005 and from 2006 to 2099.
For Gunnison county the 1980-2004 average annual
maximum temperature was 51.3° F, and the
projected figure for 2006 2099 is 57.7°F, an
increase of 6.6°F. For some context, last Julys
average monthly maximum temperature was 80.4°F in
Crested Butte, and in the future that figure
might be about 86°. Average mean minimum
temperature for the county is projected to
increase about the same amount (6.5°F), from the
historic average of 23.4°F to 29.8°. So the
summer nights wont cool off quite as much as they have historically.
In summary, well see these average temperatures
increasing by about 6° F, with variation among
months. Last Januarys average minimum
temperature in Crested Butte was 3.9°, and in the
future it might be 12.4°. Maybe thats better
for staying warm while youre out skiing, but
those warmer temperatures will allow even greater
survival by a variety of pest insects, such as
the beetles that have decimated many forests in
Colorado in recent years. Those warmer
temperatures will also facilitate the upward
movement of animals such as fox and moose, which
have become winter residents in the area around
the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory.
As for precipitation, the projection for the
future is for a very slight change in annual
precipitation (an increase of only
0.7mm/day). The good news here is that the
increase might be concentrated in winter months
(January April), when it would add to the
snowpack that provides water for summer
irrigation and recreation. That might help to
counteract in part the trend toward earlier
spring snowmelt that weve been seeing in the
past decade as spring temperatures warm (April in
particular) and we get more winter dust storms
that make the snow melt up to three weeks earlier than it would otherwise.
If youd like to explore these predictions on
your own, month by month or annually, for any
county in the country, go to the Website on.doi.gov/1fkrgQL.
