Energy and our Future (essay) Twenty years ago i bought a couple shares of Montana Power. It was a poorly performing energy company that few people were interested in. The dividend rate was comparable to savings accounts indicating few people expected the stock to appreciate. What interested me about Montana Power was their huge coal reserves and a belief that the future was in coal. I reasoned that by watching this stock i could detect the transition from oil to coal. At that time everyone thought nuclear was the future, and today they think it will be photovoltaics and wind. I still think we will go through our coal first. Montana Power's growth has been gradual and for many years the stock just sat and did nothing. Things have now changed and Montana Power is beginning to look like a growth company. I think the shift to coal is now accelerating and soon oil will no longer be what rules the world. One thing interesting about the stock market is its ability to tell the truth and make short term predictions about the future. It always predicts changes in economic conditions and groups of stocks predict shifts of interest. Often one can learn more from the stock market than from the headlines and articles on page one of newspapers. The reason for this is simple, no one controls the market, it is raw opinion from thousands of researchers and investors. So, what does the market say about our energy future? It tells me coal is coming and oil will slowly decline. Areas dependent on oil will become more costly. This includes hauling, shipping, transport, and many chemicals dependent on oil. Probably this will make plastics more expensive. It won't happen overnight, but if we are not watching it will be a surprise. The 1999 version of "State of the World" says oil is close to peaking and supplies will begin to dwindle soon. By year 2100 the oil will be gone. The point we will begin to feel impacted is when the price begins to rise. This will occur soon and possibly before the supply starts to slow. This is mostly good news for those on ecopaths. The one thing we can do is go with the flow and not become dependent on the parts of the economy driven by oil. We can build low energy lifestyles and assist others as the economy changes, and most important we can build visions of the future that work without fossil fuels. jeff
