Energy and Cities
I recieved a report from the Institute for Global Futures Research
which looked at cities and sustainablility. Unfortunatly it is
copyrighted so all i can do is summarize its content. One of the
conclusions is that cities exist because of inexpensive energy.
A diagram showing the development of cities compared to
the global energy use can be found (in an article in
Swedish) at http://www.etn.lu.se/~folke_g/RURSV2.HTM
The report does not go into conservation which tends to favor
cities, so there is two sides to this question. One point which
is difficult to contest is that urban sprawl will be impacted.
Today urban areas depend on frequent auto use and are not
designed for food production. They are heavy energy users
and few nutriments are recycled. It was suggested that
phosphorus will be in short supply because nutriments are
not recycled.
I wonder if water might be a bigger problem than phosphorus.
Possibly it would depend upon where the urban area was located.
Anyway, the models suggested energy will begin impacting
urban areas around 2010-2020. The oil availability per
person will begin to decline and we will begin the shift
to other energy sources.
The report argued that the US is accelerating this crisis by
not taxing oil. For example, the cost of gasoline around the
world looks like this:
Price of gasoline: Australia 0.50
Canada 0.41
France 1.07
India 0.72
Japan 0.81
Netherlands 1.21
UK 1.23
US 0.36
Source of information is:
<http://www.iea.org/stats/files/keystats/stats/p_0505.htm>
Conclusions: The urban areas outside cities may be good
places to avoid in the future. And of course my favorite
conclusion: the future will be strongly infulenced by energy,
it will be useful to understand how it impacts our lives.
----------
Jeff Owens ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Zone 7, http://www.teleport.com/~kowens
Underground house, solar energy, reduced consumption, no TV
