Here's the scenario. We have a years worth data on several school
districts consisting of:

� scores obtained from the beginning of the school year
� scores obtained from the end of the school year
� ordinal index of beginning of the school ability, e.g., at risk,
mainstream, gifted
� grade
� demographic variables

A student's score would determine group membership.

We would like to use these data to predict the proportion of students
in each group who will move from the current group (k) to the k+ith
group.

I'm thinking Poisson regression might be the way to go here. I'd like
to hear/read others' thoughts.

Thanks in advance.

Tim


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