Hi, Dennis--
Yes, "LOT of years!" ago (the 1950's), when I first started into the real applied
world,
our main job was to PREDICT, PREDICT, PREDICT outcomes. We had
some real cost figures to evaluate our predictions. Before the term Bootstrap
arrived on the scene, we were Cross-Validating like mad. We would divide those
punched cards into "random?" groups and shuffle them over and over again and
"re-group".
Then apply the predictions developed from one data set to the others to see how well
he were doing.
Hypothesis testing -- in the classical sense -- was not involved
I still believe that TWO important ideas in life are:
----- PREDICTION
and
----- OPTIMIZATION (choosing among alternative PREDICTIONS to MAXIMIZE or MINIMIZE one
or more OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS).
If "Hypothesis testing" helps improve PREDICTION and OPTIMIZATION then that's great.
One of the difficulties in academia may be due to the lack of practical,
decision-making
opportunities.
What PRACTICAL ACTIONS do we take as a result of analyzing a two-way table with
a Chi-Square "test" if we find a "statistically significant" outcome? I imagine we
will get
some suggestions from our readers!
:-)
-- Joe
************************************************************************
* Joe Ward Health Careers High School *
* 167 East Arrowhead Dr 4646 Hamilton Wolfe *
* San Antonio, TX 78228-2402 San Antonio, TX 78229 *
* Phone: 210-433-6575 Phone: 210-617-5400 *
* Fax: 210-433-2828 Fax: 210-617-5423 *
* [EMAIL PROTECTED] *
* http://www.ijoa.org/joeward/wardindex.html *
************************************************************************
----- Original Message -----
From: dennis roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 6:41 AM
Subject: hyp testing
| let's say that today ... we as the statistical community decided, by
| democratic vote, that the concept of 'hypothesis testing' ... which has
| essentially dominated statistical work for as long as i can remember
| (which, .... er um ... is a LOT of years!) ... is relegated to the 'we USED
| to do this stuff' category
|
| just THINK about this ....
|
| what would the vast majority of folks who either do inferential work and/or
| teach it ... DO????
| what analyses would they be doing? what would they be teaching?
|
|
|
| ===========================================================================
| This list is open to everyone. Occasionally, less thoughtful
| people send inappropriate messages. Please DO NOT COMPLAIN TO
| THE POSTMASTER about these messages because the postmaster has no
| way of controlling them, and excessive complaints will result in
| termination of the list.
|
| For information about this list, including information about the
| problem of inappropriate messages and information about how to
| unsubscribe, please see the web page at
| http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
| ===========================================================================
|
===========================================================================
This list is open to everyone. Occasionally, less thoughtful
people send inappropriate messages. Please DO NOT COMPLAIN TO
THE POSTMASTER about these messages because the postmaster has no
way of controlling them, and excessive complaints will result in
termination of the list.
For information about this list, including information about the
problem of inappropriate messages and information about how to
unsubscribe, please see the web page at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
===========================================================================
