Yura Koblents-Mishke wrote:
> When discussion drifts into politics, it is hard to
> keep it to the scientific standards. Emotions rules and
> overwhelms. I am afraid, the quote can serve as
> example.
discussions about economics will by their nature drift into arenas of politics
& psychology. economic topics include aspects of life that can be analyzed via
the principles of the natural sciences (eg physics) _and_ those that can be
analyzed via the principles of the social sciences (eg politics). problems
arise when analysis methods don't match the topic, and when lack of a
recognized standard of qualitative discourse and proof frustrates analysis in
the social sciences.
the implications of the fact that the relationship between money and reality is
not a one-to-one relationship are poorly understood in far too many arenas.
> An easy-to-read, but serious and (as I can see)
> reliable account of the Long-Term Capital Management
> debacle (by David Shirreff) can be found at the
> following site:
>
> http://risk.ifci.ch/146480.htm
a very informative site, although i didn't read this particular page.
> - somewhat stained was the very concept of statistical
> (econometric) models in business/finances. And it was
> just: it is dangerous to over rely on models.
it appears to me that one major danger of econometric models is that they
depend on money for their data, and then people use the models to predict
without keeping very close track of changes in the relationship/s between money
& reality.
--
Any resemblance of any of the above opinions to anybody's official position is
completely coincidental.
Muriel Strand, P.E.
Air Resources Engineer
CA Air Resources Board
2020 L Street
Sacramento, CA 59814
916-324-9661
916-327-8524 (fax)
www.arb.ca.gov
===========================================================================
This list is open to everyone. Occasionally, less thoughtful
people send inappropriate messages. Please DO NOT COMPLAIN TO
THE POSTMASTER about these messages because the postmaster has no
way of controlling them, and excessive complaints will result in
termination of the list.
For information about this list, including information about the
problem of inappropriate messages and information about how to
unsubscribe, please see the web page at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
===========================================================================
