I would like to "measure" students understanding of conditional probability
using a quiz or test.  If possible, I'd like to use the same test on
students who have only had algebra as well as on students who've studied
probability and statistics.  To measure improvement, I'd like to use this
test both before and after teaching students conditional probability using
different techniques. I'd like to be able to compare the relative merits of
different ways of teaching students.  [Of course, without randomization, the
study will be more observational than experimental.  Without blocking, the
observed associations may be spurious.  Thus, any test results may be of an
exploratory (EDA) nature.]

What kinds of questions or exercises (either abstract or particular) would
be good ways of measuring a student's understanding of conditional
probability?

Is there a test to measure a student's understanding of conditional
thinking/reasoning?  What kinds of questions or exercises would be good?








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