A casino that I frequent has a "bad beat" jackpot in its poker room.
Without going into all the rules, suffice it to say that the chances of
anyone's hitting the jackpot within any two minute interval is probably
of the order 10**-6. In other words, hitting the jackpot can definitely
be construed as a rare event. The jackpot had not been hit in about four
months, until last weekend, when it was hit two times in 12 hours. This
phenomena has happened before--several months without being hit, then
bam, it is hit twice in a few hours. Isn't this a characteristic of a
Poisson process? A very rare event goes a long time without occurring,
then it occurs several times within a short period.
Could one test the hypothesis of this "bad beat" jackpot following a
Poisson distribution using a goodness-of-fit test??
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