The following article appeared on CNN.com outlining the VNS exit
polling errors. However, VNS believes the networks jumped the gun in
predicting Florida at first for Gore, then over to Bush. The future
of exit polling in close heats may be questioned more closely prior to
network "predictions."
December 22, 2000
Web posted at: 5:35 a.m. EST (1035 GMT)
(CNN) -- An internal investigation by the polling organization that
incorrectly said Al Gore won the state of Florida on election night
concluded that its projections were plagued by errors all night long.
But the confidential report by the Voter News Service also says that
the major television networks, including CNN, bear responsibility for
calling the race too soon, according to an article published in
Friday's editions of The Washington Post and on the newspaper's Web
site.
The networks and the Associated Press created VNS in 1990 as a
cost-cutting measure. CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN and Fox all relied heavily on
VNS data when they first projected Gore, then George W. Bush, the
winner in Florida. The networks were forced to retract both
projections after it became clear the candidates were separated by
only a razor-thin margin of votes.
A copy of the VNS report, obtained by the newspaper, identified four
major errors that contributed to what the Post called "the biggest
blunder in television history."
� VNS had no reliable way of estimating how many absentee ballots were
cast, and the final number was nearly double what the group had
expected.
� Gore's projected lead was inflated by problems with the sampling of
voters in the 45 precincts where VNS conducted exit polls.
� The exit poll "model" itself used by the VNS also inflated Gore's
lead, because the group used Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's 1998 victory as
the best predictor of how his brother would fare instead of the number
of votes received by GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole in Florida in
1996.
� VNS was not able to correct its exit poll errors for Tampa and Miami
because at 7:50 p.m. on election night, when the network calls for
Gore began, those two cities had not reported any raw vote totals. At
that time, the exit poll in Tampa inflated Gore's estimated lead by 16
percentage points.
If any one of those four errors had not occurred, the VNS might not
have called Florida for Gore, according to the report, which was
written by VNS editorial director Murray Edelman. But the television
networks also must shoulder responsibility for making projections
without consulting VNS, according to Edelman.
"It would appear that calls are being made at the minimum acceptable
tolerances for risk, with very little allowance for error," he wrote.
"If we are to continue in this manner, our decision procedures must be
redesigned."
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