On 27 Dec 2000 08:18:11 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Jeff
Rasmussen) wrote:
< ... >
Jeff >
' When I'm on such committees I do a rank ordering based 
on whatever actuarial data is available and know that doing 
otherwise is just mucking around with error.  Most other faculty
haruspicate via predictors such as the "number of full 
professors who wrote letters of reference", "impression 
of the quality of their undergraduate school" or other voodoo.  
They are usually indignant when I point out that such variables 
add nothing above and beyond the actuarial data.  Is there a
difference between a psychologist and a psychic, I often wonder. '
----
Perhaps you were being polite.
You forgot to mention what they are  *known*  to add, above 
and beyond the actuarial data -- biases.  

By the big ones: sex, race, social class, age, ethnicity.
By more subtle ones: 
wealth, body language, speech accents, shopping habits.

And if you don't meet the fellow "first-hand,"  how will you 
know if he might not give you the secret hand-shake?

-- 
Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html


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