On 5 Jan 2001 17:32:16 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (dennis roberts) wrote:
>this is the perennial issue in national elections about ... if it looks
>like the election is sewn up from the east and south ... then what is to
>motivate those in the napa valley to leave their vinyards and head for the
>polls? i do think there are some data that roughly show that voter turnout
>is less out west ... compared to the east ... but, the difference is also
>confounded by many other factors
The entire nation is not what I talked about in my post. I'm
referring to voters in an individual state which is the same problem
writ small. Voters in the panhandle region of Florida were confronted
with electronic media calling the election before closing time. I
think the annointing of a media "winner" based on exit poll data
discourages "late" voting--period. In this instance a negative for
both the V.P. and Bush. In close races, like the 2000 election, a few
votes not cast might have changed the outcome. Is it too much to ask
of the media not to call a state until the polls close? Does this
infringe upon the First Amendment? These are indeed political and
legal issues---not statistical ones. Statisticians should be above
the fray and totally objective, right?
I would be interested in research showing voter intentions in those
western counties AFTER learning the election had been already called.
It would be fascinating to find out what the exit pollsters revealed
about those counties and if there were significant differences between
the time zones factoring in prior election data, etc. What do voters
think and then act on when confronted with the information that their
vote will be meaningless? Or, at least the media says it would be
meaningless?
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