In a word, Dennis, yes. At least, I do. The hypothesis test is testing
the null vs. the alternate hypothesis. We state the null and alternate
hypothesis, 'assume' the null is valid, then try our damnedest to prove
it is false. A negative proof, as it were. the conclusion could be
stated as follows:
The null hypothesis is not valid (false). There is a probability p that
this statement is false.
As for your second question, the smaller the p value, the more I will
believe that the 'real' parameter value is not zero. this statement
assumes that the null hypothesis was: Ho: beta(i) = 0, and Ha: beta(i)
not = 0.
The calculated beta(i) is a point estimate. I could perhaps determine
the confidence interval for it. this might give you a good idea of what
the parameter value 'is.'
Jay
dennis roberts wrote:
> in an article ... that some might be able to access ...
>
> http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/322/7280/226
>
> by
>
> Jonathan A C Sterne, senior lecturer in medical statistics, George
> Davey Smith, professor of clinical epidemiology.
> Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2PR
>
> one of the summary points made is the following:
>
> "P values, or significance levels, measure the strength of the
> evidence against the null hypothesis; the smaller the P value, the
> stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis"
>
> my main questions of this are:
>
> 1. does the general statistical community accept this as being correct?
>
> 2. if the answer to #1 is yes ...
>
> then what does this tell us (only this p value) about what the real
> parameter value is? (are)
>
>
> _________________________________________________________
> dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university
> 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm
>
>
>
> =================================================================
> Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
> the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
> http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
> =================================================================
>
>
>
--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
4444 North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA
Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: http://www.a2q.com
The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today?
=================================================================
Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about
the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at
http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/
=================================================================
