Re: Regression to the mean,Barry Bonds & HRs

[EugeneGall]

Paige Miller wrote: 
>EugeneGall wrote:
>> 
>This hardly "PROVES" anything. It is more a statement about what has
>happened in the past. 
 "Proves" was in the original article.  I'm assuming Ellenberg, a mathematics
prof, was using 'proves' in a tongue-in-cheek fashion.  However, he was serious
in ascribing the 2nd season falloff to RTM.
  If it is RTM, then as Rich notes, the improvement in the 2nd half leaders
should be roughly equal to the decrease in the 1st half leaders.  You would not
expect this result if the reason for the falloff in 1st half leaders was
increased pressure by fans and the press.


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