Professor Eakin and All -- > I caught part of a news story on TV saying that an office > that had tested > positive for anthrax was pronounced clean after further testing. Does > anyone have any numbers on the probability of a false > positive when using > the test for anthrax? This info would be useful since I am just now > talking about Type I and Type II errors in class.
I have spent some time in the library looking, but have not been very successful. My sense of things is that the actual test(s) is/are very much a pattern-matching exercise (so the probabilities might not be simple), and also that the prevalance might be so slight nobody has much of a clue about the prevalance of false positives & false negatives. You will find some numbers in Li, L., & Kuo, H. P. A study of string-of-pearls test of B. anthracis. Biological Abstracts, 49, entry # 40917. 1968. By the time I ran out of time, I had found the following, and would suggest them as a decent place to start looking for more recent numbers with much more recent techniques: Turnbull, P. C. B. Definitive identification of Bacillus anthracis -- a review. J of Applied Microbiology, 1999, 87, 237-240. Henderson, et al. Differentiation of Basillus anthracis from other Bacillus cereus group bacteria with the PCR. International Journal of Systematic Bacteriology, 1994, 44, 99-105. Turnbull, P. C. B., et al. Bacillus anthracis but not always anthrax. Journal of Applied Bacteriology, 1992, 72, 21 - 28. Please let me know if you find anything interesting! -- Chris Chris Olsen George Washington High School 2205 Forest Drive SE Cedar Rapids, IA (319)-398-2161 > -----Original Message----- > From: EAKIN MARK E [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2001 6:03 PM > To: edstat > Subject: false positives when testing for anthrax > > > > > Mark Eakin > Associate Professor > Information Systems and Management Sciences Department > University of Texas at Arlington > [EMAIL PROTECTED] or > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > ================================================================= > Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about > the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at > http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ > ================================================================= > ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =================================================================
